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With unemployment high and personal wealth diminished, how was it that strapped consumers were paying down their credit card debt last year?

It turns out they probably weren’t. The bulk of 2009’s drop in credit card debt instead came because banks were forced to write off loans consumers failed to pay, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data instant credit report.

Loans are typically charged off by banks once they’re 180 days past due, under the assumption that the debt won’t be repaid.

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German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the Greek crisis shows the euro region should consider creating an organization with powers similar to the International Monetary Fund.

“For the internal stability of the euro zone, we need an institution that has the powers and know-how of the IMF,” he said in an interview with Welt am Sonntag published today. “We shouldn’t rule anything out, including the creation of a European Monetary Fund.”

The financial turmoil sparked by Greece’s budget shortfall has highlighted the absence of a single euro-region finance ministry that could tackle the default of a member state or force a country to cut its deficit before it got out of hand. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said in an interview yesterday that the lack of political union to back up the European Central Bank is a “structural crack.”

Billionaire investor George Soros said Feb. 22 the common currency could disintegrate if the European Union doesn’t act.

“I support a stronger coordination of economic policy in the EU and the euro region,” said Schaeuble, who will publish his own proposals “soon.” He doesn’t support any IMF rescue package for Greece because that “would be an admission that the euro region can’t solve its own problems by itself.”

Euro ‘Football’

Schaeuble, who also said the euro shouldn’t become a “football” for speculators, said that any new organization wouldn’t compete with the IMF. His comments were confirmed by Finance Ministry spokesman Michael Offer.

The comments come after proposals for a European Monetary Fund were put forward last month by Deutsche Bank AG Chief Economist Thomas Mayer and Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels. Countries could draw on funds equivalent to the money deposited at the EMF and exceed that amount if they agreed to a “tailor-made adjustment program” supervised by the European Commission and governments, they said.

The EMF could also ease the disruption caused by the default of a member state by offering investors new EMF bonds in exchange for the defaulted bonds, they said. Bond holders would be required to take a “haircut.”

“Setting up a European Monetary Fund is superior to the option of either calling in the IMF or muddling through on the basis of ad hoc interventions,” Mayer and Gros wrote in an article in the Economist.

The lack of a unified fiscal policy has sparked a divergence of bond yields across the euro region as Greece’s crisis worsened. The extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year debt instead of German equivalents jumped to 396 basis points in January, the highest since 1998. The average gap over the past decade was 34 basis points. The Spanish and Portuguese spreads are about five times their respective 10-year averages.

Greece managed to sell 5 billion euros ($6.8 billion) in government bonds this past week after announcing a new round of austerity measures.

“I have no doubt that Greece will execute its announced measures,” Schaeuble said. “Their current efforts deserve big respect.”

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The risk posed by asset bubbles in Asia is overstated because surging prices in markets don’t threaten regional economies, said Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd.

“The difference between the asset bubbles in this region and asset bubbles also around the world is that they have not affected the real side of the Asian economy,” Roach told Bloomberg Television in an interview in Hong Kong today.

Concerns about inflation in Asia are “overblown” as excess capacity in the global economy is likely to keep a “lid” on prices for the next few years, said Roach, author of “The Next Asia.” “Beyond that, it’s a big challenge.”

Standard & Poor’s warned yesterday that Asian policy makers may fuel asset bubbles by leaving interest rates “too low for too long” as the region leads a global recovery from the worst slowdown since World War II. Stock and property markets are looking “frothy” in Asia, said David Wyss, an economist at S&P.

The U.S. had “monster bubbles in property credit that ended up stalling home-building activities and personal consumption” and when they burst the “economy went into the tank,” said Roach. In contrast, in Asia “you have bubbles that come and go, but they don’t impact on the real economy free credit reports.”

China’s Economy

Roach also said that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s past warnings that his nation’s growth path is “unbalanced and unsustainable” have become a “serious concern now.”

“Two of the main engines of the Chinese economy, exports and investments, really have reached their point of maximum dynamism,” Roach said. “The Chinese need to change the model and move much more into consumer-led” growth, he said.

China’s central bank last month ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month to cool the economic expansion after loan growth accelerated and property prices surged 9.5 percent in January, the most in 21 months. The China Banking Regulatory Commission told banks the same month to “strictly” follow property lending policies.

China’s consumer prices increased 1.5 percent in January from a year earlier, mainly due to gains in food costs resulting from the cold winter weather, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The gauge rose 0.6 percent from December.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, the Chinese economy grew 10.7 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007.

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The rate hikes are coming! The rate hikes are coming! Eventually.

Days after the Federal Reserve seemed to sound the alarm that the era of near-zero interest rates is ending, Chairman Ben Bernanke tempered those expectations a bit this week. Just because the Fed boosted the rate it charges banks, he told Congress, doesn’t mean it will move any time soon to boost broader interest rates too.

Nonetheless, it behooves investors to be ready, regardless whether rate hikes come in the second half of 2010 or next year.

Despite what some may think, moving toward higher rates will be good news in many ways. It’s an endorsement of the economy’s potential to stand on its own. It means yields from CDs as well as savings and money-market accounts at banks won’t be minuscule much longer. It could even bode well for certain types of stocks.

But higher rates are bad for bonds and may make some other holdings less appealing too. So investors should take a close look at what they own.

"It’s a wakeup call," says Larry Glazer, partner at Mayflower Advisors in Boston quick cash.

Here’s how rate hikes could affect you:

Bonds — Bonds are in line to experience the biggest fallout, because they generally move inversely to rates. When rates exceed the rate on a previously issued bond, the bond’s value on the open market drops.

Stocks — Overall market returns may be harder to come when the Fed determines it needs to raise rates to try to keep the economy from growing too fast. But stocks should still climb. Tread carefully, though. Some sectors — notably utilities, financials and materials — have been big laggards when rates rise.

Saving and borrowing — Long-suffering savers can look forward to their money growing at a decent clip again while sitting in the bank. At the same time, rising rates will make mortgages and other loans more expensive. If you’re thinking about buying a house or refinancing a current mortgage, it might be time to consider locking in those low-low rates.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the use of credit default swaps to destabilize a country is “counterproductive,” and added the central bank is reviewing the arrangements of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other companies with Greece.

“We are looking into a number of questions related to Goldman Sachs and other companies and their derivatives arrangements with Greece,” Bernanke said today in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.

Greek bonds slid today, pushing the premium investors demand to hold the nation’s 10-year securities instead of German bunds to the most in more than two weeks, amid concern the country’s credit ratings may be cut.

Federal Reserve officials are using new supervisory powers over firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to gather information on financial system risks. Bernanke was responding to a question from Senator Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, who asked if there should be limits on the use of credit default swaps to prevent “runs against governments.”

Destabilize

“Obviously, using these instruments in a way that intentionally destabilizes a company or a country is — is counterproductive, and I’m sure the SEC will be looking into that,” Bernanke said. “We’ll certainly be evaluating what we can learn from the activities of the holding companies.”

U.S. stocks fell today in part as Moody’s Investors Service said it may downgrade Greek debt. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 1.52 percent at 10:51 a.m. in New York. Yields on U.S. 2-year notes declined 0.03 percentage point to 0.828 percent.

Goldman Sachs helped Greek officials raise $1 billion of off-balance-sheet funding in 2002 through swaps, which European Union regulators said they knew nothing about until recent days.

Goldman Sachs did “nothing inappropriate” when it arranged currency swaps for Greece that reduced the nation’s national debt by 2.37 billion euros ($3.2 billion), a top executive said.

“They did produce a rather small, but nevertheless not insignificant reduction, in Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio,” Gerald Corrigan, chairman of Goldman Sachs’s regulated bank subsidiary, told a panel of U cash advance payday loan.K. lawmakers Feb. 22. The swaps were “in conformity with existing rules and procedures.”

“As a matter of policy, we don’t comment on legal or regulatory matters,” Michael DuVally, a Goldman Sachs spokesman, said today.

Credit Ratings

Corrigan is the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Federal Reserve gained oversight powers over Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley following their conversion to bank holding companies in Sept. 2008.

Yields on two-year Greek bonds rose to the highest since Feb. 9 after Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s said they may cut their ratings if Greece fails to implement a plan to reduce its budget deficit. Pierre Cailleteau, managing director of sovereign risk at Moody’s, said a downgrade may come by the end of March.

“Greece is able to make headlines every day, and for now volatility is here to stay,” said Michiel de Bruin, who helps manage $28 billion of assets as head of euro government bonds at F&C Investments in Amsterdam. “The market is also taking into account the possibility of a double dip in economic growth, and that’s causing risk aversion.”

The cost of insuring against default on Greek government bonds rose for a fourth day, with the credit-default swaps on the debt rising 10 basis points to 392, the highest in more than two weeks, according to CMA DataVision.

The Greek 10-year bond increased 12 basis points to 6.64 percent as of 3:02 p.m. in London. The 6 percent security maturing July 20109 lost 0.82, or 8.2 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 95.56. The two-year yield jumped 61 basis points, the most since Jan. 29, to 6.35 percent.

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Microsoft and Yahoo said Thursday that their online search deal has received approval from U.S. and European Union regulators, paving the way for the two companies to combine much of their Internet search business.

Under the 10-year deal, which was announced in July, Yahoo.com and Bing.com will maintain their own branding but search results on Yahoo.com will say "powered by Bing." Yahoo, in turn, will be responsible for getting premium advertisers.

Microsoft will pay Yahoo 88% of the revenue it gains from searches on Yahoo’s sites. Microsoft will also have the rights to integrate Yahoo’s search technology into its own existing Web search platforms.

With the final hurdle out of the way, the companies said Thursday that they will start implementing their partnership in the coming days. Yahoo and Microsoft have set a goal to complete all aspects of the deal in the United States by the end of 2010 and globally by the end of 2012. The companies previously said that U.S. users will start to see the change three months after regulators approved the deal.

"This breakthrough search alliance means Yahoo! can focus even more on our own innovative search experience," said Yahoo Chief Executive Carol Bartz in a statement.

Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer called the regulatory approval "an exciting milestone," noting that the companies are "just at the beginning of this process."

Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) remains the clear dominant search engine, controlling more than 65% of the market, according to online data tracker comScore. But Microsoft’s (MSFT, Fortune 500) Bing and Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) control nearly 30% of the market combined, which analysts say will help the companies attract better advertising partners.

Shares of Microsoft and Yahoo both rose less than 1% in midday trading. 

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The Federal Reserve Board raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent and said the move will encourage financial institutions to rely more on money markets rather than the central bank for short-term liquidity needs.

“These changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities,” the central bank said today in a statement. “The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy.”

The dollar jumped and Treasuries extended losses as the Fed took another step in a gradual retreat from its unprecedented actions to halt the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression. The Fed has provided hundreds of billions of dollars in backstop credit to banks, bond dealers, commercial paper borrowers and troubled financial institutions such as American International Group Inc.

“This is an unwinding of another unusual and exigent circumstance,” said David Zervos, visiting adviser to the Fed Board in 2009 who is now a managing director at Jeffries & Co. in New York. “They tried to go out of their way to tell people this doesn’t change their policy outlook at all.”

The dollar rose 0.7 percent to $1.3514 per euro at 5:19 p.m. in New York from $1.3607 yesterday. It touched $1.3502, the strongest level since May. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose seven basis points to 3.8 percent.

Maturity Shortened

The discount rate increase is effective on Feb. 19. The Board also said that effective March 18 “the typical maximum maturity for primary credit loans will be shortened to overnight.”

The Fed Board said the outlook for policy remains “about as it was at the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.” The central bank also cited last month’s statement, which said economic conditions are likely to warrant “exceptionally low” levels of the federal funds rate “for an extended period.”

It was the first increase in the discount rate in more than three years, and the move widens the rate’s spread over the top range for the benchmark federal funds rate to 0.5 percentage point.

Backup Source

“The increase in the spread and reduction in maximum maturity will encourage depository institutions to rely on private funding markets for short-term credit and to use the Federal Reserve’s primary credit facility only as a backup source of funds,” the Fed Board said in a statement.

“The Federal Reserve will assess over time whether further increases in the spread are appropriate.”

Financial institutions’ reliance on Fed credit has waned as market liquidity improved. Discount window loans stood at $14.1 billion on Feb. 17, down from $65.1 billion about a year earlier.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke telegraphed the move in Feb. 10 testimony to Congress when he said investors should expect a “modest increase” in the rate “before long.” Using language similar to today’s statement, he said a move shouldn’t be interpreted as a change in policy.

The Fed’s lending programs and their May 2009 review of the capital needs of the 19 largest banks helped restore confidence and liquidity in interbank lending markets. The TED spread, the difference between what the Treasury and banks pay to borrow dollars for three months, has narrowed to 0.15 percentage point from as high as 4.64 percentage points in October 2008.

Emergency Facilities

The central bank closed four emergency lending facilities, including the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and Term Securities Lending Facility, on Feb. 1.

Primary dealer credit stood at $146.5 billion two weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008. The facility had a zero balance when the Fed closed it in February.

The Federal Open Market Committee left the benchmark overnight lending rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent at their meeting Jan. 27. Minutes from the meeting said officials “agreed it would soon be appropriate” to reduce the term of discount window loans to overnight and widen the spread over the federal funds rate.

The minutes also said that the discount window change didn’t signal an immediate change in the benchmark lending rate.

Normal Footing

Fed officials “generally agreed that such steps to return the Federal Reserve’s liquidity provision to a normal footing would be technical adjustments.”

Prior to the financial crisis, the Fed kept the primary credit discount rate 1 percentage point above the target for the federal funds rate.

The Fed increased the term on the loans to 90 days during market turmoil in March 2008, and reduced it 28 days on Jan. 14 this year.

Discount rate changes are requested by boards of directors at the 12 regional Fed banks. The Fed Board said it approved requests for the rate increase from all 12 regional Fed banks. Discount rate change requests are subject to final review and determination by the Board of Governors in Washington. Fed governors review discount rate requests about every two weeks.

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European Union finance ministers are uniting to oppose President Barack Obama’s proposal to limit banks’ size and risk-taking, saying his plan may run counter to EU policy, according to a draft document.

Their position, which they will ratify at a two-day meeting starting today, comes after Obama last month urged the adoption of the so-called “Volcker rule,” named for former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. The plan would bar commercial banks from owning hedge funds and limit how much they can trade for their own account.

The finance officials gathering in Brussels will express “their concern that the application of the ‘Volcker’ rule in the EU may not be consistent with the current principles of the internal market and universal banking,” the document obtained by Bloomberg News said. “Any policy choice should avoid pushing risks to other parts of the financial system.”

The resistance underscores political divisions over how to overhaul banking regulations to prevent a repeat of the crisis that forced taxpayers to prop up the financial system. While leaders have called for a Group of 20 initiative, the U.S., Britain, and France are forging their own policies to limit compensation and risks.

At a meeting this month in Canada, Group of Seven finance ministers signaled they are rallying around a plan to introduce a levy on banks if it can be applied worldwide business cards design.

The Feb. 10 draft, entitled “Issues note on the most recent proposals of the U.S. administration in respect of Systemically Important Financial Institutions and the introduction of a financial crisis responsibility fee,” was prepared by a committee of officials from finance ministries, the European Central Bank and the European Commission.

EU Proposals

The three-page memo also considered proposals including levying a stability fee on banks and creating national or pan- European funds for future bailouts.

Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg last month presented a plan to create a fund for future banking crises. In contrast, the Netherlands’ Wouter Bos last month wrote a letter to his counterparts welcoming Obama’s proposals and calling for a “serious debate” on the U.S. plan at the meeting in Brussels.

Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the group of euro-area finance ministers, last month voiced concern about a common approach on bank levies given that taxes are a matter dealt with at the national level of the 27-member bloc.

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Japan’s economy probably grew at the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2008 as a global trade revival fueled demand for the nation’s exports.

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 3.6 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, following a 1.3 percent expansion in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Cabinet Office report is due on Feb. 15 at 8:50 a.m. in Tokyo.

Nissan Motor Co. and Canon Inc. are among companies benefitting from stronger global demand as countries poured more than $2 trillion into their economies to spur growth. Those gains have failed to reach consumers at home, where wages are tumbling and household outlays have been propped up by government incentives that are starting to wear off.

“Japan may be able to stave off a double-dip recession given exports have done better than expected,” said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Still, it’s questionable whether a recovery in domestic demand without the stimulus is possible and the economy is still highly dependent on overseas demand, underscoring the fragility of the recovery.”

Gains in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average stalled this year after a 19 percent advance in 2009, a reflection of concerns about the strength of the global recovery. The yen is the only currency that has gained against the dollar since Dec. 31 among 10 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, threatening exporters’ profits.

Asia spearheaded Japan’s revival at the end of 2009. Shipments to the region surged 31 percent in December, the fastest pace in almost a decade, helping China overtake the U.S. as Japan’s largest foreign customer on an annual basis. Demand from the U.S. is also improving after the nation’s GDP expanded the most in six years last quarter.

‘More Resilient’

“The Asian economy is growing at a fast pace while the U.S. economy is picking up, a sign the global recovery is becoming more resilient,” said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai- Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.

Nissan, Japan’s third-largest carmaker, this week forecast a return to profit for the year ending March 31, citing government incentives that boosted sales in China and Japan. Canon, the world’s largest camera maker, is predicting its biggest annual profit increase in a decade amid revived global demand.

Japan’s economy expanded 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, the survey showed. Overseas shipments increased 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, analysts surveyed said ay day loans. Net exports, or shipments minus imports, added 0.5 percentage point to growth.

Calculation Change

The Cabinet Office said last week that it will change the way it calculates exports and imports on a seasonally adjusted basis to account for the anomaly created by the financial crisis in 2008. The announcement prompted economists to cut their annualized GDP forecasts by about 1 percentage point.

The faster growth may not be enough to convince Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama that the recovery is sustainable. The premier, facing upper house elections in July, is implementing a 7.2 trillion yen ($80 billion) stimulus package that his administration estimates can boost growth by about 0.7 percentage point next fiscal year.

Even if GDP is strong, “Hatoyama may compile an additional stimulus as he wants to lure voters ahead of the election, especially when his popularity is sliding,” said Susumu Kato, chief economist for Japan at Calyon Securities in Tokyo.

‘Long Way’

Central bankers aren’t confident that growth is durable. Kazuo Momma, the Bank of Japan’s top economist, this month said “there is still a long way to go” before the expansion becomes sustainable. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his policy board will hold a rate-setting meeting two days after the GDP report is released.

Japan’s wages slumped at a near-record pace in December, when household sentiment fell to a six-month low. In a sign that stimulus measures are fading, retail sales fell 1.2 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest drop a year, as customers purchased fewer cars and appliances.

Nevertheless, consumer spending probably contributed to the growth in the fourth quarter. The 0.3 percent increase predicted by economists would be a third of the pace of the previous quarter. Capital investment may rise 1.5 percent, the first positive reading in seven quarters.

Economists including Calyon’s Kato said the business investment figure may be revised down when the government updates the GDP report next month to reflect additional data.

“The domestic economy remains fundamentally weak as the positive cyclical loop between income and expenditure has yet to kick in,” said Ryutaro Kono, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. “Although we believe the worst is over for corporate earnings, the return on capital remains so low that companies will continue to restrain labor costs for some time.”

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Sterling Kozlowski, the region's top KeyBank N.A. executive since mid-2006, is leaving Western New York to become president of KeyBank's Maine district.

Kozlowski begins his new job Feb. 16, according to a release issued Monday by the bank. He will replaced retiring Maine district president Dick Lucas.

A search for the district's next president has begun, the bank said.

Kozlowski, a Syracuse native who grew up in Rochester, joined KeyBank in July 2006 after working 23 years at HSBC Bank USA N.A. In his current job, he has been responsible for 1,000 employees, 41 branches and 50 ATMs.

In Maine, he will focus on revenue, expense management, profitability and credit quality, the bank said. He will also work with sales managers to provide banking accessibility to low- to moderate-income individuals and communities.

Kozlowski earned an undergraduate degree in marketing management from Syracuse University. He also graduated from the advanced commercial lending program at the University at Buffalo and the Graduate School of Retail Bank Management at the University of Virginia.

Cleveland-based KeyBank, a subsidiary of KeyCorp, is the third largest bank in Western New York. Four new or renovated branches are expected to open locally within the next couple of years.

Nationwide, KeyBank has about $93 billion in assets and more than 1,000 branches.

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