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February 12, 2011

Vietnam Devalues Dong by Record 7% as Officials Seek to Curb Trade Deficit - Bloomberg

Filed under: Uncategorized, business — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 3:07 am

Vietnam devalued the dong by about 7 percent, the most since at least 1993, risking faster inflation to curb the nation’s trade deficit and narrow the gap between official and black-market exchange rates.

The dong slumped to as weak as 20,893 per dollar, compared with 19,498 yesterday, and was at 20,850 at 12:05 p.m. in Hanoi. The State Bank of Vietnam fixed the reference rate for the currency at 20,693 versus 18,932 yesterday. The trading band was narrowed to 1 percent on either side of the rate, compared with 3 percent previously.

Vietnam’s fourth devaluation in 15 months takes place with its inflation rate at the fastest in almost two years, and with the International Monetary Fund describing its foreign-currency reserves as being “low.” While the whole of Asia outside Japan is struggling to curb inflation, countries such as China, Taiwan and Singapore have strengthening currencies and rising foreign- exchange reserves.

“There is still a crisis of confidence out there,” said Nizam Idris, a strategist at UBS AG in Singapore. “There’s still more pressure for the currency to depreciate some more.”

The currency traded yesterday on the black market at 21,300, 8.5 percent weaker than the official rate, and this afternoon weakened to as much as 21,550, according to a telephone information service run by Vietnam Posts & Telecommunications.

Currency Credibility

“This is an overdue attempt to get the currency market under control,” said Kevin Snowball, chief executive of PXP Vietnam Asset Management in Ho Chi Minh City. “You can’t just leave a 10 percent differential between the official and black- market rates without destroying the credibility of the entire currency regime.”

The devaluation may ease a drop in foreign-exchange reserves and calm the market at the risk of boosting imported inflation, wrote Tai Hui, the Singapore-based head of Southeast Asian economic research for Standard Chartered Plc.

“Higher interest rates are still needed to maintain price stability and prevent further dong sell-offs,” Hui wrote in a research note today. “The credibility of the State Bank of Vietnam needs improvement given repeated one-off devaluations.’

While the central bank’s so-called base rate has held at 9 percent since November, market interest rates have climbed to as high as 20 percent, Ho Chi Minh City-based Viet Capital Securities said last week.

The International Monetary Fund, which in December called for a further tightening of monetary policy to ‘‘restore orderly conditions in the foreign-exchange market” and contain inflation, said today that it welcomed the attempt to narrow the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates.

IMF View

Still, Vietnam also needs “a broader set of policies to restore macroeconomic stability,” said Benedict Bingham, the IMF’s senior resident representative in Vietnam poor credit personal loans. “Monetary policy will need to focus more decisively on containing inflation, and fiscal policy will need to be put on a clearer consolidation path to contain public debt.”

The monetary authority had already devalued the dong in November 2009 and February and August last year, amid concern the nation will run short on foreign capital needed to fund a trade deficit, which reached $1 billion in January, according to preliminary government figures.

While the official exchange rate of the currency had been little changed since the August 2010 devaluation, on the black market the currency weakened from about 19,500.

“We paid 20,500 per dollar in December and 20,800 in January,” said Alan Young, chief operating officer of Australian-listed Vietnam Industrial Investments Ltd., which runs steel plants in the northern port city of Haiphong. “You just can’t buy dollars at the official rate.”

‘Very Steep’

Currency reserves probably fell to about $13.6 billion at the end of last year, down from $14.1 billion in September and $23.9 billion in 2008, according to Citigroup Inc.

The devaluation is “very steep,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. “It seems the authorities are trying to support exports and to support growth, rather than to fight inflation. That’s very surprising because inflation in Vietnam is a major problem.”

The central bank said the measures will help “manage the exchange rate more flexibly” and curb the trade deficit.

“We will adjust the reference rate more flexibly, more often now, depending on the market demand, instead of leaving the rate fixed for a long time,” said central bank Deputy Governor Nguyen Van Binh.

Growth Focus

Moody’s Investors Service cut Vietnam’s sovereign credit rating in December, citing the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis and a drop in foreign reserves as inflation accelerates and the currency weakens. Consumer prices increased 12.17 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with 11.75 percent in December, according to the statistics office.

“One of our top priorities now is to stabilize the macro economy in order to maintain the pace of growth,” Nguyen Van Thao, deputy chief administrator of the ruling Vietnamese Communist Party’s Central Committee, said on Jan. 19. The government forecasts the economy will expand by up to 7.5 percent this year, compared with 6.78 percent in 2010.

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February 10, 2011

Winnipeg, Toronto driving rise in new-house prices

Filed under: business, online — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 1:27 pm

OTTAWA

January 30, 2011

Bankers remain tightfisted despite recovery

Filed under: business, marketing — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 3:43 am

A letter from his bank left businessman Tom Neusel outraged.

M&I Bank said the interest rate on his company’s $70,000 loan was jumping to 7.5 percent from 4.25 percent. Just like that.

“This is not a reflection on you in any way,” said the letter, “but more as a result of the increased risk in the economy and general cost of funds increase across the entire banking industry.”

A year and a half after the official end of the Great Recession, banks are still tightfisted with lending, although they are starting to loosen just a bit.

“I have the feeling that it’s starting to come back slowly,” said Dennis Melton, district director for the Small Business Administration in St. Louis. “I’m not getting the phone calls that I used to get saying,

December 25, 2010

WAfricans threaten force in Ivory Coast; 14K flee

Filed under: business, finance — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 11:51 pm

The man who refuses to leave Ivory Coast’s presidency faced new threats to his grasp on power after regional leaders threatened to remove him by force if necessary.

Meanwhile, the U.N.’s refugee agency said Saturday that at least 14,000 Ivorians have fled the chaos of their homeland, trekking for days to reach safety in Liberia.

Diplomatic pressure and sanctions have left Laurent Gbagbo increasingly isolated though he has been able to maintain his rule nearly a month after the disputed vote because of the loyalty of security forces and the military.

Even that, though, may disappear if he runs out of money to pay them.

Late Friday, West Africa leaders from the 15-country regional bloc ECOWAS _ the Economic Community of West African States _ threatened to send military intervention into Ivory Coast if incumbent Gbagbo refuses to step down peacefully.

“In the event that Mr. Gbagbo fails to heed this immutable demand of ECOWAS, the Community would be left with no alternative but to take other measures, including the use of legitimate force, to achieve the goals of the Ivorian people,” said a statement from ECOWAS.

James Gbeho, president of ECOWAS said the group of West African leaders was making an “ultimate gesture” to Gbagbo to urge him to make a peaceful exit.

The 15-nation regional bloc of West African states made the decision following a six-hour emergency summit in Abuja, Nigeria, on Ivory Coast as worries mounted that the country that suffered a 2002-2003 civil war could return to conflict.

Gbeho said the bloc would send in a high-level delegation to meet with Gbagbo, and tell him to step down, but did not give details as to when the delegation would go or a deadline for Gbagbo.

The threat of force came on the tail of another serious international reproach, this one from the West African economic and monetary union, which called on the regional central bank to cut off Gbagbo’s access to state coffers.

Gbagbo’s spokesman Ahoua Don Mello on Saturday denounced the decision by the union to give Ouattara’s government signing privileges on state accounts. He called the move “illegal and manifestly beyond their competence.”

The meeting of regional finance ministers that issued the freeze “overstepped its stated prerogatives by interfering in the internal affairs of a member state of the union,” Mello said on state television Friday evening.

Gbagbo’s government has denied rumors that state salaries wouldn’t be paid, and in spite of the financial freeze, civil servants received their paychecks the day before Christmas Eve. But senior diplomatic sources, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, say that Gbagbo only has enough reserves to run the state for three months, setting the scene for a drawn-out standoff.

Ivory Coast is the world’s biggest cocoa grower, producing 40 percent of the world’s supply. While a cocoa embargo might have a more immediate impact on Gbagbo’s ability to govern, European and American business interests prevent this from being seriously considered, said African security analyst Peter Pham.

“A cocoa embargo isn’t even on the table,” said Pham, who is the Senior Vice President of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy in New York.

The threat of military intervention may add enough pressure to bring about a swifter resolution, said Pham, though he questioned whether a force could be brought together quickly enough to have an impact.

“Nigeria _ the only real military power in the AU _ is unlikely to have the stomach for a drawn-out military escapade on the eve of their own presidential election,” he said. Nigerian elections will be held in April next year.

Gbagbo has refused to step down from the presidency despite international calls for his ouster from the U savings account payday advance.N., U.S., former colonizer France, the European Union and the African Union. The international community recognizes Alassane Ouattara as the winner, though Gbagbo maintains control of the national military.

In recent days, the United Nations has expressed alarm about the actions of men who are believed to be Gbagbo loyalists. At least 173 deaths have been confirmed in violence over the presidential vote, and the U.N. is warning the number could be greater since it has been unable to investigate all the allegations.

Masked gunmen with rocket launchers have blocked access to what officials believe may be a mass grave site in Ivory Coast, the United Nations said. The world body also reported Thursday that heavily armed forces allied with Gbagbo and joined by masked men, were preventing people from getting to the village of N’Dotre, where the global body said “allegations point to the existence of a mass grave.”

The U.N. did not elaborate on the possible victims, though it has expressed concerns about hundreds of arrests, and dozens of cases of torture and disappearance during the political turmoil since the presidential runoff vote was held nearly a month ago.

Even the top U.N. envoy in the country was stopped at gunpoint while trying to look into reports of human rights abuses, the U.N. deputy human rights commissioner in Geneva said Thursday.

On Saturday, the Geneva-based office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees announced that the agency has “registered 14,000 Ivorian refugees in eastern Liberia who fled in the wake of post-electoral instability in their country for nearly a month now.”

“With their numbers growing, the humanitarian needs are increasing for the mostly women and children refugees as well as for the villagers hosting them,” the agency said in a statement.

“The growing number of new arrivals is impacting communities hosting the refugees. Food supplies are running short despite efforts by the government and humanitarian agencies to bring in more assistance,” the UNHCR said.

Meanwhile, Ouattara continued to assert his legitimacy from the Golf Hotel, where he has taken refuge since the election, protected by 800 U.N. peacekeepers.

“After these long years of crisis, the Ivorian people deserved to rejoice in our democratic advancement,” Ouattara said. “But former president Laurent Gbagbo has decided to turn a new page of violence and uncertainty, aggravating everyday a little more the suffering of Ivorians,” he said in a Christmas Eve address.

Troops loyal to Gbagbo continue to encircle the hotel. While their blockade was officially lifted last week and U.N. supply trucks were authorized to cross the lines, no one else has been allowed access to the compound.

Ouattara is trying to assert control over state television, which had been controlled by Gbagbo until Thursday, when it was pulled from airwaves in 80 percent of the country.

Only people in the main city of Abidjan continued to receive the state channel, which has been exclusively reporting Gbagbo’s victory, refusing to mention the results that make Ouattara president, or his international support.

“We don’t know who did it,” said Ouattara adviser Amadou Coulibaly, “but we’re sure glad they did.”

Ivory Coast was once an economic hub because of its role as the world’s top cocoa producer. The 2002-2003 civil war split the country into a rebel-controlled north and a loyalist south. While the country officially reunited in a 2007 peace deal, Ouattara draws his support from the northern half of the country, where he was born, while Gbagbo’s power base is in the south.

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November 15, 2010

Forecasters trim recovery expectations: Philly Fed

Filed under: business, online ads — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 7:24 pm

The recovery in the U.S. economy and labor market is expected to be modestly slower in the fourth quarter than previously expected, according to a survey of forecasters released on Monday.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s survey of 43 professional forecasters sees the economy growing at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the current quarter, down from the estimate of 2.8 percent three months ago.

The unemployment rate was forecast to be 9.6 percent in the fourth quarter, in line with the previous estimate. But forecasters revised down the growth in jobs expected over the next four quarters.

Forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 86,600 jobs per month this quarter and 104,200 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2011. This is down from previous expectations of 114,100 and 159,300, respectively.

Forecasters cut their inflation expectations. Over the next 10 years, forecasters expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.2 percent at an annual rate, down from 2.3 percent in the last survey. The 10-year outlook for PCE inflation of 2 percent is lower than the previous forecast of 2.11 percent.

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November 9, 2010

China Is `Available’ to Support Portugal Through Financial Crisis, Hu Says - Bloomberg

Filed under: business, term — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 1:07 pm

China said it’s “available” to support Portugal’s efforts to come through the economic crisis that has prompted its borrowing costs to spiral this year.

“We are available to support, through concrete measures, Portuguese efforts to face the impacts caused by the international financial crisis, and deepen and broaden our economic and commercial cooperation,” Chinese President Hu Jintao said in Lisbon yesterday.

He didn’t specify what such measures might be. The Chinese president yesterday ended a two-day visit to Portugal and did not mention Portuguese bonds or debt in public comments.

The extra yield investors demand to hold Portuguese debt rather than German bunds widened last week even after the minority government on Nov. 3 passed a budget plan that features wage and spending reductions to trim the euro region’s fourth- largest deficit from 9.3 percent of 2009 gross domestic product.

China “has always given positive and favorable consideration” to bond purchases when making state visits, Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying said on Oct. 28.

Portuguese Economy Minister Jose Vieira da Silva on Nov. 6 said that the existence of institutions and countries that are interested in diversifying their portfolio with Portugal’s bonds is “a positive factor.”

“If we are able to place that debt with a logic of greater diversification and greater equilibrium among the various financial agents, that is a factor of greater security not only for the placement of that debt, but also for its management,” Vieira da Silva said.

Bond Sales

Portugal plans to sell as much as 1.25 billion euros ($1.75 billion) of bonds due 2016 and 2020 on Nov. 10. The yield at a Nov. 3 auction of 1.03 billion euros of three- and 12-month bills climbed and demand declined for the securities. Portugal paid 3.26 percent for the 12-month debt, up from 2.886 percent on Oct. 6.

The spread on Portugal’s 10-year bonds over German bunds was at 410 basis points on Nov. 5. The spread soared to a euro- era record of 441 basis points on Sept. 28. German calls for bondholders to share the burden of any future debt restructuring have also made investors wary of lending to Europe’s most- indebted nations payday loans.

Portugal’s planned spending cuts for next year are set to be the biggest since at least 1978, according to EU statistics office Eurostat, as the government tries to convince investors it can narrow its budget deficit and curb debt. The austerity measures may hurt Portugal’s economic growth, which has averaged less than 1 percent a year in the past decade.

Exports

The government is counting on exports such as paper and wood products to support growth. The budget forecasts economic growth of 0.2 percent next year, slower than this year’s estimated 1.3 percent pace.

“The Chinese government encourages competitive companies to invest and operate in Portugal, and we welcome Portuguese companies to participate energetically in the competition in the Chinese market,” Hu said yesterday. “We will do everything so that trade between China and Portugal can double by 2015.”

Portugal’s budget gap last year was the highest in the euro region after Ireland, Greece and Spain. It aims to lower the shortfall to 7.3 percent this year, 4.6 percent in 2011 and meet the EU’s 3 percent limit in 2012.

The Finance Ministry forecasts Portugal’s public debt as percentage of GDP will increase to 86.6 percent in 2011 from about 82.1 percent this year. Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said on Oct. 16 that he expects the ratio to “stabilize” in 2012 and to start declining in 2013.

Portugal’s budget plan calls for lowering the wage bill 5 percent for public-sector workers earning more than 1,500 euros a month, freezing public hiring and raising the value-added tax by 2 percentage points to 23 percent. The governing Socialists have agreed to reconsider some public-works projects including public-private partnerships to overcome the opposition of the Social Democratic Party to the budget.

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November 4, 2010

Did Steve Eisman unduly influence the Education Dept.?

Filed under: business — Tags: , , — Snowman @ 10:48 pm

again declined. In an interview last month Eisman declined to say whether his short positions benefited from the price declines after the Sohn speech or Senate testimony. [For more on Eisman’s short positions in for-profits and on a libel suit in which he was named a "co-conspirator," but not a defendant, by a Florida for-profit, read "Short-sellers get snagged in education litigation."]

The DOE’s discussion with Eisman in April had involved two DOE officials: David Bergeron, an acting deputy assistant secretary for policy and budget, and Robert Shireman, at the time a deputy undersecretary and the key critic of for-profit abuses, who joined by phone. Shireman was in charge of the department’s new regulations toughening how the for-profits conduct business. Most of those regulations — bitterly contested over the summer — became final yesterday and will go into effect next July. Teeing up the rules late last week, Secretary of Education Arne Duncan cited the for-profit industry’s "rapid growth of enrollment, debt load, and default rates" as justifying federal intervention. Analysts say the regulations could significantly hurt the for-profits’ business.

What Shireman and Bergeron heard from Eisman would become his stock presentation. In a series of slides titled "Subprime Goes to College," Eisman talked about the for-profits’ operating margins, operating profits, executive compensation, and other matters — all while arguing that for-profits don’t deliver on job promises related to the career-oriented and vocational degrees they grant.

Two days after that discussion with Eisman, on April 28, Shireman delivered a speech in St. Paul at the annual meeting of state regulators in which he likened for-profit colleges to the financial institutions that took excessive risks and caused the 2008 meltdown. He twice mentioned "subprime," though his rebuke was less colorful than the one Eisman later offered at the Sohn conference and in congressional testimony. Though Shireman called out representatives of the for-profits he saw in his audience, his criticism was aimed less at them than the accreditors who oversee them.

The day after Shireman’s speech, Career Education Corp (CECO). fell 12%, and Apollo Group 6%.

Bergeron, Shireman, and Eisman declined to comment. Eisman did say in an interview with Fortune last month that the DOE’s proposed regulations had not come up at his meeting with the DOE in "any way, shape, or form."

Impropriety or business as usual?

The for-profits decry an allegiance they believe looks unseemly. Lanny Davis, a spokesman for the Coalition for Educational Success, which represents 78 for-profit educational institutions, told Fortune that the DOE should look into why the Eisman meeting with the DOE had not previously been disclosed business cards design.

"Appearances count," Davis said, "and when an investor meets with a senior official of a federal department — in this case the No. 2 person — shortly before the issuance of a regulation that clearly could affect the public markets, that has a bad appearance. The only way to clear up the bad appearance is full transparency — meaning disclosing the fact you’re meeting with the investor ahead of time and requiring the investor to fully explain the positions he holds."

A DOE spokesman said the Eisman meeting "was fully appropriate and violated no department or federal requirements," adding that "we do not see any appearance problem in meeting with as broad a range of people, viewpoints, and perspectives as possible." The spokesman also said that Shireman and Bergeron "provided no information or reaction to Mr. Eisman," other than to point out factual errors in one slide, and said that "department staff met with many people from various perspectives and backgrounds about the for-profit industry." The DOE says there are no records for its meetings on the regulations before those regulations were formally proposed.

In fighting the proposed DOE regulations, the for-profit industry has sought to portray a conspiracy of interests against it. A libel lawsuit in Florida is trying to make Eisman and various advocacy groups the villains in the raging economic and political battle between the for-profit education industry and the nonprofit sector. In that lawsuit, filed a few weeks ago, a privately held for-profit school called Keiser University is suing a competing nonprofit public institution, Florida State College, for spreading "injurious falsehoods" about Keiser. In its formal complaint, Keiser claims FSC and two of its administrators aimed to "derail" the for-profit education sector through a "false and misleading campaign." That campaign, according to the complaint, was executed in part through a "conspiracy" with both advocacy groups and short-sellers like Eisman.

Disclosure: Until January 2009, David A. Kaplan was a long-time employee at Newsweek, which until recently was owned by the Washington Post Co. He also was the editor of the Kaplan-Newsweek College Guide until 2008. A percentage of his retirement-plan holdings is in Washington Post stock, granted when he worked at Newsweek. The lucrative Kaplan education division of the Post Co. would be hurt by the DOE’s regulations. 

Source

September 23, 2010

Froehling Anderson to transition leadership

Filed under: business — Tags: , — Snowman @ 10:09 am

Accounting firm Froehling Anderson has new top executives, following the St. Louis Park-based firm’s practise of having a leadership transition every seven years.

Existing partner David Benusa will become Froehling Anderson’s CEO and managing partner; another partner Gary Dosdall will fill the newly created chief operating officer position at the firm, which includes the duties of what was the firm’s chief financial officer position. The change takes place Jan. 1.

Present CEO Doug Galka and chief financial officer Mark Kammer will no longer hold leadership titles at Froehling Anderson, but will remain as partners.

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September 19, 2010

U of L releases men’s basketball schedule

Filed under: business — Tags: , , — Snowman @ 12:36 am

The University of Louisville Friday released its 2010-11 men’s basketball schedule, which includes 23 dates at the new KFC Yum! Center in downtown Louisville.

The Cardinals’ first action in the new 22,000-seat arena will be an exhibition scheduled for Sunday, Oct. 31, against the University of Northern Kentucky.

U of L will play 12 exhibition and regular-season home games at the KFC Yum! Center before hitting the road for the first time, Wednesday, Dec. 22, against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers payday loan lenders.

The game against Western Kentucky will be the only time, outside Big East Conference play, that U of L will play on the road.

U of L will face the University of Kentucky at the new arena on Friday, Dec. 31. They will open Big East play Wednesday, Jan. 5, at home against Seton Hall.

Click here to view the complete schedule.

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June 10, 2010

Banking reform takes shape in Congress

Filed under: business — Tags: , , — Snowman @ 6:09 pm

St. Louis bankers are aghast, consumer advocates are delighted and retailers have their fingers crossed.

That’s the situation as the U.S. Senate and House get ready to iron out the differences in their banking reform packages this month.

Meanwhile, debate goes on over whether the bills will accomplish their biggest goal — preventing a repeat of the bacchanal of brainless lending that nearly collapsed the financial system in 2008 and plunged America into recession.

In St. Louis, the howls are particularly loud from area bankers who fear they will be forced to cut the fees they charge merchants for debit card transactions, while being stuck with higher costs for complying with new consumer protection rules.

The bills contain "several very alarming things," says David Kemper, CEO at Commerce Bank, the largest bank based in St. Louis. He says the bills could cut 5 to 8 percent from pre-tax earnings. "We’re all for consumer protection, but at what cost?"

Consumer groups are hailing a rare victory over the bankers. "It’s amazing. The bill could be stronger, but given how much political muscle the industry has, this is really good," said Kathleen Day of the Center for Responsible Lending.

The House and Senate bills have their differences, but they are similar enough so that a probable outline of the final bill is emerging. Here’s a review:

A new consumer protection agency and new rules for banks — Both bills would establish a new agency with broad authority to set rules for consumer lending. The rules would cover banks, payday lenders, finance companies and the like. However, the agency couldn’t set a limit on interest rates, and it probably wouldn’t have authority over auto loans made through car dealers.

The House excluded auto dealers. The Senate didn’t, but the Senate later told its negotiators to exempt the dealers. Auto dealers arrange 79 percent of all car loans, according to the Senate Finance Committee, and dealers often add their own profit to the price. Banks and credit unions complain that they will be subject to consumer protection rules on car loans whereas the dealers won’t.

The bills also contain new rules on mortgages, requiring lenders to assure that borrowers prove they have enough income to make their payments.

Bankers complain that they will be stuck with the cost of paying for the consumer agency, and the government examiners who will troop through banks making sure the rules are obeyed. Such costs get passed on to customers, bankers say.

The consumer rules might limit innovation in credit cards, home improvement loans, mortgages and the like, banks say. That, in turn, might prompt them to stick to plain-vanilla lending rather than risk running afoul of the consumer agency, leaving less choice for borrowers.

Max Cook, president of the Missouri Bankers Association, thinks the consumer agency will become a tool of consumer advocacy groups. "Our greatest fear is that this is their platform," he said.

Giant financial institutions will have to raise more capital — Financial institutions deemed "systemically important" would be put under the thumb of the Federal Reserve under the Senate version. The Fed’s reach would go beyond commercial banks into big investment banks and other financial companies whose failure might threaten the system.

One of the most expensive failures of 2008 was the insurance conglomerate AIG, which was hardly regulated at all. Taxpayers have paid more than $170 billion so far to prevent its collapse.

Financial giants are linked to each other through a web of obligations. The failure of a single giant player can weaken others, potentially leading to more failures. Fear of that domino effect helped set off the panic of 2008, which nearly froze the credit system, and brought on a $700 billion taxpayer bailout.

To head off a repeat, the Fed could force big players to reduce risk and raise capital — a cushion of shareholders’ money that can absorb losses and prevent failure.

Controlling how big banks would fail — Institutions thought to be "too big to fail" might be allowed to fail under the new bills, but they would do so in an orderly fashion. Both bills would let the FDIC seize big financial institutions — banks and other players — and wind down their operations in a way least likely to cause systemic shock.

That might mean paying off some creditors, while stiffing others.

The bills require that failing companies be liquidated, not rescued. Shareholders’ investment would be wiped out, while unsecured creditors would take a haircut.

Right now, institutions that lend money to a too-big-to-fail bank think they’re taking little risk. That’s already changing as credit rating agencies threaten to trim their ratings on the nation’s too-big-too-fail banks. Big banks will have to pay more for financing, and that could trim their profits and perhaps restrict their lending.

No bank based in St. Louis would be considered too big to fail, but several such banks operate here, including Bank of America, U.S. Bank and PNC Bank. Citigroup has no branches here, but it owns a large mortgage operation in St. Charles, and Wells Fargo’s retail brokerage is based in downtown St. Louis.

Disallowing proprietary trading for banks — Big players, and some small ones, are howling over a Senate plan to ban banks from risking their own capital by playing the stock, bond, commodities and derivatives markets. They would be able to handle such trades for others, but not bet the bank’s own money.

Wall Street banks have made a lot of money playing the markets. Ron Kruszewski, CEO of investment firm Stifel Financial in St. Louis, warns that such a ban could reduce "liquidity." Banning the banks will mean fewer players buying and selling, raising the price of transactions for all sides, including small investors.

The ban, called the "Volker Rule," isn’t in the House bill, but House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank has said he would go along with it.

Debate brewing on debit card fees — A proposed change in debit card rules may spark a fight when Senate and House negotiators meet. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., sponsored an amendment that would let the Fed set "interchange" fees paid by merchants when customers use debit cards. The fees, about 1 to 2 percent of the purchase price, are big sources of income for banks and a major complaint of retailers. There’s no such thing in the House bill.

The Senate amendment also would let merchants offer discounts for customers who pay with cash or checks rather than credit or debit cards. Banks warn that the loss of fees could cause them to stop offering rewards, such as airline miles or cash back, to customers who use debit cards.

Some small banks may boost fees for checking accounts, Cook said. "All those banners that say ‘free checking’ are being taken down," he said.

Merchants say they will be able to lower prices, although it would also raise store profits.

New way to sell derivatives — Derivatives helped push some institutions over the brink during the credit crisis. The bills would force derivatives to be sold through clearing houses, which would make sure the companies issuing derivatives have the money to back them up. Most derivatives would also have to be traded on exchanges, which makes prices clearer.

Derivatives can be used to hedge risk, or to take risk on. AIG failed largely because it issued credit default swaps — the equivalent of insurance — on mortgage bonds. When the bonds began to weaken, AIG couldn’t pay up.

So, would these changes prevent the next big financial mess?

Dave Rolfe, chief investment officer at Wedgewood Partners in Ladue, has his doubts. Regulation doesn’t prevent catastrophe if the regulators aren’t sharp, and can’t fend off political pressure from the industry.

"Look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They failed miserably," said Rolfe, noting that the mortgage giants had a special federal regulator.

Stifel’s Kruszewski, who runs a brokerage and investment firm, says the bill fails to completely control "weapons of mass financial destruction," such as credit default swaps and synthetic collateralized debt obligations. Such derivatives allow speculators to make massive bets in the credit markets, raising the risk level in the system.

Kemper, of Commerce Bank, says the bills would put too much cost on small and mid-sized commercial banks, which had nothing to do the subprime mortgages and speculation that caused the crash.

"You don’t want to turn the banking system into the domestic airline business."

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