The yen weakened for a second day against all of its major counterparts on speculation Group of Seven nations will keep selling the currency to curb its appreciation and help support Japan’s economy.
The yen extended losses after sliding the most against the dollar in six months on March 18, when the G-7 intervened to bring the currency down from a postwar high and assist Japan’s recovery from its biggest-ever earthquake. Switzerland’s franc weakened as Japan made progress controlling a damaged nuclear reactor, sapping demand for the currency as a haven. The euro fluctuated against the dollar as the region’s finance ministers meet to hammer out details of a debt-crisis solution.
“People are not really willing to take on the G-7 for now,” said Geoffrey Yu, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS AG. “They know the G-7 will intervene again.”
Japan’s currency weakened 0.6 percent to 81.06 per dollar at 8:36 a.m. in New York after slumping 2.1 percent on March 18. The yen depreciated 0.6 percent to 114.96 per euro. The euro was little changed against the dollar to $1.4169. Financial markets in Japan were shut today for a national holiday.
An exchange rate of “80 per dollar is probably the line in the sand that the Bank of Japan would want to defend,” Yu said.
Postwar High
The yen surged to a post-World War II high of 76.25 versus the dollar on March 17 after a 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami struck Japan on March 11, damaging cooling systems at a nuclear-power plant north of Tokyo. The currency’s gain came amid speculation investors were repatriating assets to fund an estimated 10 trillion yen ($123.6 billion) for reconstruction.
Japan’s Prime MinisterNaoto Kan said today he sees “light at the end of the tunnel” for Japan’s crisis and that progress is being made in restoring power to reactors at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant.
The G-7, which comprises the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Canada and Italy, sold yen on March 18 after finance ministers spoke on a conference call, according to Japan’s Vice Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi. The G-7 statement promised to “provide any cooperation” with Japan.
“Today there is a bit of relief that the situation in Japan is not deteriorating,” which is damping demand for the Swiss franc, said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of currency research at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen.
Switzerland’s franc weakened 0.4 percent against the euro to 1.2825 per euro and depreciated 0.4 percent against the dollar to 90.43 centimes.
Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. say the yen’s gains will reverse as Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa injects cash into the financial system just as his peers prepare to tighten monetary policy.
Weaker Yen
“The yen will weaken over time,” said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo, the second most- accurate predictor of Japan’s currency against the euro in the six quarters through December, according to Bloomberg data. “The policy response from the authorities is going to be quite substantial. We would expect further intervention, at least from Japan business card.”
Bennenbroek expects a decline to 86 per dollar in 12 months, while Lee Hardman, a strategist at Bank of Tokyo in London, says it will depreciate to 89 by year-end.
The euro weakened against the dollar for the first day in three before euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels to further develop a package of measures on the region’s debt crisis and economic governance. European Union leaders will hold a summit March 24-25 to discuss the measures.
EU Summit
European governments are trying to find a solution to the debt crisis that has roiled their region as the European Central Bank considers raising borrowing costs to stem inflation.
“There is some uncertainty about the finance ministers’ meeting today, how that will turn out, and then the EU summit on Thursday and Friday,” said Danske Bank’s Lohmann Rasmussen. “Last week people got a bit worried that the European Central Bank might get second thoughts about hiking rates, but it seems like they have no plans to do that, so there should still be support to the euro from rates.”
Euro-region inflation accelerated to 2.4 percent last month and has been above the ECB’s 2 percent limit since December. ECB governing council member Yves Mersch indicated today that he supports raising interest rates next month.
“It’s essential that the recent rise in inflation doesn’t lead to a general inflationary trend in the medium term,” Mersch wrote in a quarterly report published today by the Luxembourg Central Bank. “Strong vigilance is needed to contain upside risks to price stability.”
Dollar Index
The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers including the euro, yen and British pound, fell for a third day. Oil futures climbed in New York as allied air strikes in Libya threatened to prolong a supply outage in North Africa’s third-biggest producer and renewed concern escalating turmoil may disrupt Middle East exports.
“It’s partly related to the higher price of oil, and there are lots of negative fiscal issues in the U.S. which are dollar negative,” said Jane Foley, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Rabobank International in London. “Monetary policy in the U.S. remains very accommodative when other central banks are preparing to tighten, and there are fiscal issues bubbling away.”
The Dollar Index was 0.1 percent lower at 75.625. Oil futures advanced as much as 2.3 percent in New York.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed for a second day versus the yen as higher oil prices increased demand for currencies linked to commodities.
“There’s a slight bullish bias this week,” said Mike Jones, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. “High global commodity prices are a big boon for the kiwi and Aussie.”
Australia’s currency advanced 1.1 percent to $1.0065 while New Zealand’s dollar rose 0.6 percent to 73.54 U.S. cents.
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