Group of 20 leaders may limit criticism of the Federal Reserve for flooding the world with money when they meet in China as Europe’s debt crisis and Japan’s disaster take precedence.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, French President Nicholas Sarkozy, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will gather in Nanjing for a one-day seminar on the international monetary system tomorrow. China, Brazil and South Korea all previously slammed the Fed’s $600 billion program for driving down the dollar and fueling asset bubbles in emerging markets.
A 9.0-magnitude earthquake in Japan, armed NATO intervention in Libya, and the heightened prospect of a bailout of Portugal are among developments since Sarkozy proposed the meeting seven months ago. At the same time, the Fed plans to end its Treasury purchases in June and officials have signaled that additional quantitative easing is unlikely as the American economy is showing signs of strengthening.
Criticism of U.S. monetary policy is “so yesterday,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ in New York. “World leaders and monetary officials have a lot more important things on their plate.”
Officials including French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde will discuss topics including “shortcomings in the international monetary system” and dealing with volatile capital flows, according to the schedule for the conference in Nanjing, a city on the Yangtze River about 170 miles (270 kilometers) from Shanghai.
Currency Intervention
The meeting comes after Portugal’s 10-year bond yield advanced to a euro-era record, unrest in the Middle East and North Africa pushed crude oil over $100 a barrel, and the Group of Seven nations this month triggered the biggest fall in Japan’s yen in more than two years. A weaker currency may help Japanese exporters to weather a disaster spanning nuclear leaks and the annihilation of northeastern towns.
Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management International, said it will be “fascinating” to see how a Chinese delegation including central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan reacts to any discussion of the G-7 move.
China itself intervenes to limit gains by the yuan, drawing criticism from trading partners including the U.S. The currency traded at 6.5610 per dollar yesterday after touching a 17-year high of 6.5552 on March 22.
The host nation has been one of the biggest critics of U.S. monetary policy, blaming it for driving up commodity prices and stoking inflation, which reached a 28-month high of 5.1 percent in China in November.
Fed’s Easing
The Fed, which sets monetary policy independent of Geithner’s Treasury Department, has initiated two rounds of quantitative easing to support growth after the financial crisis.
“Some countries have further eased their monetary policies in order to spur economic recovery and that has caused rising global commodity prices,” Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told chief executives gathered on March 21 at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
In an interview this week, Goldman’s O’Neill asked whether the Fed’s critics would rather see a permanently damaged American economy or a U.S. recovery where “one of the consequences might be higher commodity prices.”
O’Neill, who will speak in Nanjing in a panel on liquidity management moderated by U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, said he expects possible changes to the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights to be discussed. In 2009, Zhou suggested in a policy paper that SDRs may be the basis for a new global currency.
Sarkozy’s Agenda
While French officials said there will be no group statements or decisions, Sarkozy’s own agenda in China includes pushing industrial projects such as Areva SA (CEI) nuclear-power plants, Airbus SAS planes and Alstom SA (ALO) high-speed trains.
Tomorrow’s event also reflects the French leader’s desire to organize a new “Bretton Woods” during his presidency of the G-20 to address what he has called imbalances in the global monetary system. He first raised the possibility of such a meeting in August and pressed the Chinese to act as hosts.
Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, was the site of a 1944 meeting which led to the establishment of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
“I think in some sense maybe the axis of discussion for this G-20 is going to be helping the Chinese assume a bit more prominence at the global table,” said Cliff Tan, head of emerging-markets research at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
–Michael Forsythe. With assistance from Rebecca Christine in Washington and James Hertling in Beijing. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, James Hertling.
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