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The risk posed by asset bubbles in Asia is overstated because surging prices in markets don’t threaten regional economies, said Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd.

“The difference between the asset bubbles in this region and asset bubbles also around the world is that they have not affected the real side of the Asian economy,” Roach told Bloomberg Television in an interview in Hong Kong today.

Concerns about inflation in Asia are “overblown” as excess capacity in the global economy is likely to keep a “lid” on prices for the next few years, said Roach, author of “The Next Asia.” “Beyond that, it’s a big challenge.”

Standard & Poor’s warned yesterday that Asian policy makers may fuel asset bubbles by leaving interest rates “too low for too long” as the region leads a global recovery from the worst slowdown since World War II. Stock and property markets are looking “frothy” in Asia, said David Wyss, an economist at S&P.

The U.S. had “monster bubbles in property credit that ended up stalling home-building activities and personal consumption” and when they burst the “economy went into the tank,” said Roach. In contrast, in Asia “you have bubbles that come and go, but they don’t impact on the real economy free credit reports.”

China’s Economy

Roach also said that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s past warnings that his nation’s growth path is “unbalanced and unsustainable” have become a “serious concern now.”

“Two of the main engines of the Chinese economy, exports and investments, really have reached their point of maximum dynamism,” Roach said. “The Chinese need to change the model and move much more into consumer-led” growth, he said.

China’s central bank last month ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month to cool the economic expansion after loan growth accelerated and property prices surged 9.5 percent in January, the most in 21 months. The China Banking Regulatory Commission told banks the same month to “strictly” follow property lending policies.

China’s consumer prices increased 1.5 percent in January from a year earlier, mainly due to gains in food costs resulting from the cold winter weather, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The gauge rose 0.6 percent from December.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, the Chinese economy grew 10.7 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007.

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No faxing fast cash advance gets you cash fast and easily.

UPS announced plans to cut 1,800 jobs as part of a restructuring plan intended to streamline the company’s domestic management structure.

The cuts will eliminate management and administrative positions across the country, UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) said in a statement Friday. Approximately 1,100 employees will be offered voluntary separation packages; other impacted workers will receive severance benefits and access to support programs.

"The decision to reduce our workforce is difficult and we appreciate the significant contributions of those who will be affected by this change," said Scott Davis, UPS chairman and chief executive. "But we believe this will allow us to sharpen our focus on profitable growth while being even more nimble in serving our customers."

UPS said the restructuring plan, which takes effect in April, will reduce the number of districts in the company’s small-package operation to three from five and the number of regions to 20 from 46. The consolidation does not involve closing operating facilities.

The announcement came the Atlanta-based company said its expects to beat its earnings estimate for the fourth quarter of 2009. The company previously projected it will earn between 58 cents and 65 cents per share during the final quarter of last year. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect earnings per share to fall to 63 cents, a 24% decline compared to same period in 2008.

UPS said it expects to incur a charge in 2010 as a result of the restructuring plan, but said it will be offset by cost savings.

Shares of UPS were up more than 5% in early trading.  

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In another ominous sign for state budgets nationwide, state and local governments reported another drop in overall tax revenue on Tuesday.

General sales tax, individual income tax and corporate income tax were all down in the third quarter of 2009, resulting in an overall 6.7% drop in total tax revenue, compared to the same quarter in 2008, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

This is the fourth consecutive quarter in which tax revenue collection has fallen.

The one bright spot was property tax collection, which showed a slight increase of 3.5%, compared to the same quarter in 2008.

Total taxes collected in the third quarter were $266.5 billion compared to $285.6 billion during the same quarter in 2008.

States are wrestling with some of the worst budget deficits since the Great Depression. Rising unemployment has wreaked havoc on their vital revenue streams of personal income, corporate profits and sales taxes.

Though governors and lawmakers are reluctant to raise taxes, particularly in bad economic times, the current fiscal situation has prompted some to turn to such measures.

Some 29 states enacted revenue hikes for fiscal 2010, which began on July 1 in nearly all states. Personal income tax hikes accounted for the largest portion, some $10.7 billion. Corporate levies declined by $202.2 million. 

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Italian business confidence rose to the highest in 18 months in December on expectations by manufacturers that growing exports will boost the economy’s recovery from the worst recession since World War II.

The Isae Institute’s manufacturing sentiment index climbed to 82.6, the highest since June 2008, from a revised 79.4 in November, the Rome-based research center Isae said today. That compared with a median forecast of 79.7 in a Bloomberg News survey of 8 economists.

The survey showed “a strong recovery in production expectations and in the assessment on orders, the ones from abroad in particular,” Isae said in the report. “Inventories remain stable and below levels considered normal.”

The $2.3 trillion economy expanded 0.6 percent in the three months through September after five quarters of contraction as exports grew. The economy may grow 1.1 percent in 2010, employers’ lobby Confindustria forecast on Dec. 17. Exports to non-European Union countries rose 2.6 percent in November after falling 9.1 percent in October. Economic growth in France and Germany, which emerged from the recession in the second quarter, is also supporting Italian manufacturers.

The rise in confidence in Italy mirrored gains in optimism in Europe’s largest economy. Business confidence in Germany increased to the highest level in 17 months in December as the global recovery supported exports and manufacturing growth, the Munich-based Ifo institute said on Dec. 18.

French business confidence fell in December for the first time in nine months on concern that fading government-stimulus measures may slow the economy’s recovery from its worst slump in six decades, Paris-based statistics office Insee said last week.

Reduced Stimulus

Government incentives across Europe contributed to the recovery of auto and home appliance sales from a global decline caused by the recession. In Italy, they benefited Fiat SpA, whose Italian sales rose 28 percent in November from the previous year.

Italy’s government plans to reduce incentives to trade in old cars for newer models to 300 million euros ($432 million) next year, Il Sole 24 Ore reported on Dec. 27. Italy set aside about 400 million euros to spur sales of more fuel-efficient cars in 2009.

Manufacturers remain pessimistic about the job market on expectations that hiring will lag the economic recovery, today’s report showed. A sub-index measuring expectations on employment held at minus 18 in December.

The jobless rate climbed in the third quarter to the highest in four years, Istat said on Dec. 17. Rising unemployment and reduced stimulus may weigh on consumer spending in coming months.

Isae conducted its latest survey of 4,000 companies between Dec. 1 and Dec. 18. The research center revised its November reading from an initial 78.8.

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China and other faster growing developing nations may lure more funds away from advanced economies for the next two decades, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Those flows will counter any impact on China’s capital markets from government measures aimed at curbing asset bubbles, said Thomas Deng, Goldman Sachs’ head of China strategy. Corporate profit growth in China, estimated at between 20 percent and 30 percent on average next year, will fuel an equity market rally, said Deng. He recommended buying shares in China’s auto and healthcare industries, and companies with large land reserves in Shanghai ahead of next year’s World Expo.

“Western countries’ money is moving to oriental countries, and that means developed world money is flowing into developing countries,” Deng told reporters in Hong Kong yesterday. “This will be a trend in the next 10 to 20 years.”

Developing economies will expand 5.1 percent in 2010 compared with 1.3 percent growth in advanced nations, according to the International Monetary Fund. Asia-excluding-Japan equity funds posted net inflows of $975 million in the week ended Nov. 25, bringing the total for the year to $18 billion, EPFR Global said on Dec. 1. Flows into China equity funds reached a year-to- date high of $827 million, according to EPFR, which tracks funds holding $10 trillion worldwide.

China Index Forecasts

Goldman Sachs forecasts Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will reach 17,000 by the end of next year, according to Deng. That’s higher than his previous forecast of 16,800 in an Oct. 29 report and the gauge’s closing level yesterday of 13,341.17.

China’s CSI 300 Index will hit 4,300 by the end of 2010, Deng said. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index will climb to about 27,000 next year, Timothy Moe, an analyst at the brokerage, said at the same media briefing. The CSI 300 closed at 3,957.33 and the Hang Seng at 22,289.57 yesterday.

An unprecedented $1.3 trillion of loans this year and a $586 billion stimulus package pushed China’s economy to record 8.9 percent growth in the third quarter, the fastest expansion in a year. The credit boom helped the Shanghai Composite Index rally 80 percent this year and Hong Kong’s H-share index surge 69 percent. Home prices in 70 major cities in China climbed at the fastest pace in 14 months in October, the government reported Nov. 10.

Real estate in China is “slightly expensive, but not a bubble,” Deng said. The nation needs a gradual exit strategy to prevent a bubble, he said.

Bubble Concerns

China is among the emerging markets facing risks of property and commodity market bubbles, central bank adviser Fan Gang said Nov. 18, echoing the World Bank, which said last month that the nation needs to tackle the “misallocation of resources.” China’s five largest banks have submitted plans to regulators for raising money after record lending eroded their capital, according to four people with knowledge of the matter.

China’s economy will expand 9 percent this year and 11 percent in 2010, mainly driven by domestic demand and will translate into corporate earnings, Deng said.

Investors should also favor companies that will sell shares in Shanghai for the first time next year, Deng said yesterday. China Mobile Ltd., Cnooc Ltd. and China Resources Enterprise Ltd. were named as examples of companies that would likely perform well in Hong Kong ahead of their mainland listings, Deng wrote in his Oct. 29 report.

“Liquidity is favorable to Chinese shares, particularly the Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares,” the analyst said.

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Oprah Winfrey knows how to keep viewers on the edge of their seats.

In the last 10 minutes of her show, Winfrey confirmed that she will be ending her syndicated "Oprah Winfrey Show" in September 2011.

"After much prayer and months of careful thought, I thought that next season, season 25, will be the last season of ‘The Oprah Winfrey Show,’ " she told the audience.

"You may hear a lot of speculation in the press about why I’m making this decision now, and I wanted you to hear it from me," she said. "Twenty-four years ago on September 8, 1986, I went live from Chicago to launch the first show. I was beyond excited, and a little nervous."

Winfrey remained calm after her announcement, even when guest Ray Romano joked that she was going to make this is his mother’s saddest and happiest day by simultaneously having Romano on and confirming the Oprah era had come to an end.

"I knew what a miraculous opportunity I had been given, but I certainly couldn’t have imagined the yellow brick road of blessings," Winfrey said, pausing as she became visibly and audibly choked up. "You, the viewers, have enriched my life beyond measure. You have graciously invited me into your kitchens, living rooms and lives. Some of you have literally grown up with me; we’ve grown up together.

"Whether you’ve been there in the beginning or just started last week, I hold it dear. It still means as much to me to spend an hour with you as it did in 1986," she said.

And then, the answer to the most obvious question: why leave the show? Oprah didn’t give much of an answer.

"Here is the real reason: I love this show, this show is my life, and I love it enough to know when it’s time to say goodbye. It’s the perfect number, the exact right time," she said.

She encouraged her fans to stick out the next 18 months as she and her production team pull out all the stops to make the last season of "Oprah" one that will "knock your socks off."

"The countdown to the end of ‘The Oprah Winfrey Show’ starts now," she said. "Until that day, I intend to soak up every meaningful, joyful moment with you. I’ll see you on Monday." 

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U.S. retailers are expected to post positive October sales results this week, but investors hoping for a clear signal on economic recovery could be in for disappointment, industry experts said.

Many top retail chains will report same-store sales results on Thursday, with the overall industry expected to post a 1.2 percent rise, according to Thomson Reuters data.

That compares with a 4.1 percent fall in October 2008, just weeks into a global financial markets collapse.

If the expected increase materializes, it will raise hopes that consumers are prepared to spend more during the crucial holiday season.

“Our forecast is that we are on a recovery path but the recovery path will be uneven,” said Frank Badillo, senior economist at Retail Forward. “From month to month some of these numbers will give false signals either way. We are seeing a recovery that is zigzagging in a positive direction.”

But high expectations mean any disappointment in sales results could fuel a retreat by investors on stocks that have risen in recent weeks, fueled by pockets of good news from a variety of retailers from J Crew Group Inc to TJX Companies Inc.

“If expectations are too high, even if the absolute number shows sequential improvements, the stocks will sell off,” said Needham & Co analyst Christine Chen.

The Standard & Poor’s Retail Index .RLX has risen 1 percent this month, and almost 37 percent since January bad credit payday loans. That has fueled a belief among some on Wall Street that along with positive sales, retailers may raise outlooks next week.

Cool weather and new merchandise in stores before the holidays have both fueled spending, continuing on advances made in September, and easy comparisons with year-ago results.

Drugstore operators are expected to have fared the best in October with an expected rise of 3.4 percent, according to the Thomson Reuters data. Teen retailers face an estimated 2.8 percent same-store sales decline, driven by lingering weakness at Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

DATA CONFUSES PICTURES

But while sales trends have improved from a disastrous October 2008, data on the economy and consumer spending show shoppers remain tight-fisted and cautious.

On Friday, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending fell 0.5 percent in September, the largest drop since December, following the end of the government’s program to boost auto sales.

At the same time, the U.S. economy is officially out of recession with positive gross domestic product growth, according to data released on Thursday.

That means that optimism for October is tempered by realistic caution on the part of many, making sales numbers difficult to predict. 

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Stocks ended higher Monday as investors ultimately shook off the day’s jitters about China’s trade rift with the U.S. just ahead of the anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 21 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 6 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 11 points, or 0.5%.

Stocks took a breather Friday after a five-session winning streak that left the major indexes at the highest levels in nearly a year. But after that selloff, investors were wary Monday. A choppy session ended with only slim gains.

Higher commodity prices have supported the most recent leg of the advance, boosting the underlying stocks. Gains in technology and financial shares added to the advance.

But oil services, tech and financial shares struggled Monday, limiting the market’s movement.

Tuesday brings the August retail sales report from the Commerce Department and, the Producer Price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, and the Empire State manufacturing index.

China: The U.S. and its largest trading partner are facing a growing rift, even as the countries continue to collaborate as part of a global effort to tackle the economic slowdown.

Late Friday, President Obama, responding to complaints from labor unions, said the U.S. would impose tariffs of up to 35% on tires from China.

On Sunday, China said it would begin the process of imposing tariffs on U.S. cars and chicken meat. On Monday, China asked the World Trade Organization to get involved.

The conflict precedes the Group of 20 meeting of leaders of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the U.S. next week.

Global markets tumbled, with major European and Asian markets ending lower.

The trade spat and slide in global markets gave a boost to the U.S. dollar, which has been sliding versus other major currencies lately.

President Obama: The president spoke Monday on Wall Street about financial services reform on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Obama said that the economy is returning to normal, but that it will take time. He also said Wall Street must take steps to rebuild its relationship with the public and make sure that it doesn’t engage again in the kind of behavior that led to the crisis.

One-year later: Tuesday is the anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and buyout of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, events that were seen as turning a recession into a full-blown crisis on a level not seen since the 1930s.

On that day, the Dow plunged 504 points as financial shares tumbled, credit seized up and investors panicked.

Stocks zigzagged through the week, but managed to end with just slim declines that Friday thanks to some government actions. They included the Fed jumping in to save AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) from bankruptcy and the establishment of an early version of the TARP bank bailout plan.

For a look at what the government has been doing over the last year to manage the crisis, click here.

Company news: Eli Lilly (LLY, Fortune 500) said its cutting around 5,500 jobs as part of a bigger plan to save $1 billion by 2011. Shares ended modestly higher.

Sprint (S, Fortune 500) shares rallied 11% on published reports that Deutsche Telekom, the owner of T-Mobile USA, is interesting in acquiring the U.S. based phone carrier.

Oil and gold: The stronger dollar dragged on dollar-traded commodities Monday, with oil and gold prices retreating.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell 43 cents to settle at $68.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $5.30 to settle at $1,001.10 an ounce, remaining above the key $1,000 level.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.38% from 3.35% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers two to one on volume of 1.21 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners eight to five on volume of 2.19 billion shares. 

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Hundreds gathered Tuesday to hear from the leaders of two big downtown St. Louis projects — one apparently getting under way within weeks and the other still stuck in uncertainty.

Bill DeWitt III, president of the St. Louis Cardinals, told those at a Partnership for Downtown St. Louis luncheon that continuing trouble in financial markets means that bonds to raise money for the first phase of Ballpark Village might not be sold until the middle of next year.

Regardless, "behind the scenes" leasing activity for the $520 million retail, entertainment and office project next to Busch Stadium remains strong, DeWitt said.

The Cardinals and Cordish Co. of Baltimore are co-developers of Ballpark Village.
DeWitt said the project will be completed.

"We’re going to stick this out," he said during the luncheon’s discussion that was moderated by KMOV (Channel 4) news anchorwoman Vickie Newton. No questions were taken from other journalists or the audience during the luncheon affordable health insurance quote self employed.

The bonds cannot be sold until the Missouri Development Finance Board gives final approval of state subsidies for Ballpark Village. DeWitt hopes the board will approve the subsidies at its July meeting.

In contrast, bonds to help pay for David Checketts’ $74 million plan to reopen the Kiel Opera House are on the market.

Checketts, owner of SCP Worldwide and the St. Louis Blues, told the luncheon crowd he believes work on the Kiel project should begin in early August and be completed late next year.

Checketts plans to restore the Opera House for shows and musical events. He also said the Opera House would host some activities surrounding the National Hockey League’s All-Star Game, which he hopes to bring to the adjoining Scottrade Center.

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As an NBA Hall of Famer, Earvin "Magic" Johnson faced down such giants as Larry Bird and Julius Erving. Diagnosed with HIV in 1991, Johnson has fought off full-blown AIDS for the past 18 years. Now, as a coffee shop proprietor, he’s fighting his latest battle against…scones.

"My customers in urban America are so skeptical, we have to win them over," he says — and the skepticism extends to exotic pastries. "So in my Starbucks, we serve sweet potato pie."

Sixteen years after retiring from pro basketball, Johnson is finding almost as much success as a small business owner as he did on the court. Magic Johnson Enterprises, a private Los Angeles-based company, has 35 employees and assets of more than $700 million. It works with local entrepreneurs to open franchises in inner-city neighborhoods across the U.S., and has signed a unique deal with Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) that allows MJE to open franchises and split the revenue fifty-fifty.

Now Johnson is advising big-box stores such as Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) on how to crack urban markets once the economy allows the stores to expand again. The key, he says, is paying attention to customers. When Johnson makes public appearances — as he does about 100 times a year — he isn’t just signing autographs. He also gives his office phone number to any customer who complains to him personally, even if the problem is a dearth of sugar packets. If the problem persists, he wants to know about it.

"Minorities appreciate that, because we are used to corporations coming in, opening up their building, but then disrespecting us with their service," Johnson says cash loan lenders. "If you don’t engage us, we’re going to cut you off our list."

He found that out the hard way. One of his first franchises was an NBA store that lost $200,000 before it closed. The reason? Johnson picked the inventory based on his own preferences rather than the customers’. Another early venture, a movie theater near L.A.’s gang-ridden Crenshaw district, seemed doomed to failure until Magic sat down with the gang leaders and asked for their respect. It worked. The theater is now one of the highest earners in the AMC chain.

Johnson is on to something, says Dominique Hanssens, chair of the marketing department at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management. Selling sweet potato pie instead of scones, she says, "shows customers that you’re trying to figure out how to serve them in new ways." By targeting a less affluent market, Johnson benefits from less competition, greater loyalty and, paradoxically, more revenue in the long run.

"The lifetime value of his customers can be quite high, even if they don’t bring in as much money in the short term," Hanssens says. "Everybody loses business in a recession. But it’s better if your existing customers stay with you and just spend a little less."  

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