Fujii’s Health Woes Show Lack of Government Expertise
Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii’s health deterioration threatens his four-month tenure, exposing a lack of experience in a government that’s struggling to contain Japan’s debt and sustain an economic recovery.
Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said yesterday that no decision has been made on whether Fujii, 77, will remain in his job as the government awaits judgment on his medical condition. Fujii told reporters in Tokyo that health issues may prevent him from attending the next session of parliament this month. He is likely to resign, Kyodo News reported today, citing an unnamed ruling party lawmaker.
A Fujii resignation would elevate focus on the two vice- finance chiefs, Yoshihiko Noda and Naoki Minezaki, as well as Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who heads economic policy, and Yoshito Sengoku, the minister for administrative reform. Investors would examine any successor’s credentials on fiscal matters after Fujii championed avoiding an increase in new bond sales, said Susumu Kato at Calyon Securities in Tokyo
“Hatoyama needs someone who is heavyweight and has expertise, but the DPJ lacks experienced personnel,” said Kato, Calyon’s chief economist for Japan. “Fujii gave a sense of security in a relatively young Cabinet as he’s veteran politician who has already been finance minister.”
Retirement Postponed
Hatoyama asked Fujii last year to postpone retirement and run in the August election that brought his Democratic Party of Japan to power for the first time. Fujii previously headed the Finance Ministry in 1993, and is a former budget examiner at the agency, giving him a deeper background in the area than other lawmakers in the party.
Financial markets indicated little immediate concern over doubts about Fujii’s future, with Japanese government bonds little changed and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average closing at the highest level since October 2008. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes were at 1.325 percent. The yen rose 0.6 percent to 91.92 as of 6 p.m. in Tokyo yesterday.
The Diet is scheduled to convene later this month, when the finance minister would typically face lawmakers’ questions over the proposed record 92.3 trillion yen ($1 trillion) budget.
While the DPJ-led coalition’s majority in the Diet means Hatoyama’s 2010 budget is likely to be little affected by a Fujii departure, it could complicate any effort to compile an additional fiscal stimulus, said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.
Stimulus Weighed
“There’s a chance that the government may have an additional stimulus” package to submit before elections for the upper house of the Diet in July, Muto said. “If that happens, the government will be in trouble unless it chooses a person who has strong political leadership as a next finance minister.”
The latest warning on the durability of Japan’s recovery from its deepest postwar recession came yesterday from Sony Corp business card templates. Vice Chairman Ryoji Chubachi. He said “there’s a risk of a double-dip recession,” citing the damage of deflation to companies’ earnings. Chubachi spoke at a New Year’s party attended by government officials and business leaders in Tokyo.
Kato at Calyon Securities said a Fujii departure may have an impact on debt markets, depending on the dedication of any successor to avoiding an increase in government bond issuance.
Spending Restraint
In the course of compiling the 2010 budget, Fujii urged ministers to restrain outlays after their requests amounted to an unprecedented 95 trillion yen. He said the government must keep its promise of holding bond sales around 44 trillion yen to contain the world’s largest public debt burden — even after Hatoyama indicated he wouldn’t strictly adhere to the cap should more spending be necessary.
“There’s no finance-ministry type other than Fujii” within the DPJ, said Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo. “If Fujii steps down, fiscal discipline may loosen regardless of who takes over the post.”
Fujii, Japan’s fifth finance minister since August 2008, was admitted to hospital on Dec. 28 for high blood pressure and exhaustion, three days after the budget release. “My examination is continuing, and I’ll respect my doctor’s judgment,” he said. He canceled his regular Wednesday press briefing for today.
For Hatoyama, losing his finance chief would come as his public support tumbles. The Cabinet had an approval rating of 50 percent in a Dec. 25-27 poll by Nikkei Inc. and TV Tokyo Corp., down from 75 percent backing in mid-September.
Currency Stance
Some analysts said Fujii wouldn’t necessarily be missed by investors after he indicated he supported a stronger yen, only to later say that the government is prepared to step into the currency market to stem its gains. As finance minister, Fujii is responsible for overseeing Japan’s exchange-rate policy.
The yen climbed to a 14-year high of 84.83 per dollar on Nov. 27, hurting exporters by eroding their profits earned abroad. The currency has since retreated about 8 percent.
“Investor estimation of Fujii’s steadiness isn’t that high because of his currency gaffes,” Hirokata Kusaba, a senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute in Tokyo. “The budget has been already drafted and the government bill will pass because the ruling coalition controls both chambers,” meaning the impact of his departure “will be limited.”
Kusaba said Sengoku or Noda would be the most likely candidates to replace Fujii.
Kiuchi at Nomura said the yen may weaken no matter who succeeds Fujii because he “is labeled as tolerating a stronger yen and opposing intervention.”