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October 27, 2008

Commuters ditch keys for transit

Filed under: business — Tags: , , — Snowman @ 5:46 pm

SAN FRANCISCO — Gasoline prices may be falling fast from record highs, but travelers are still avoiding the highways and jumping on buses and trains at a record pace, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Transportation.

In fact, Americans drove 15 billion fewer miles in August than they did in the same month a year ago, according to federal data.

That represents a 5.6 percent decline from August 2007, marking the biggest year-over-year decline ever recorded, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters said in a statement.

At the same time, public transit ridership jumped 6.2 percent across the country this summer compared with a year ago.

Peters pointed out that Texas, where she spoke during a visit to a light-rail station under construction in Dallas, saw an increase of 15 percent in its DART rail system.

All this with gas currently costing a national average $2 http://payday-z.com.78 for a gallon of regular unleaded, according to recent numbers from AAA. That’s down almost a dollar from a month ago and is more or less the same as it cost in October 2007.

The surprising trend, likely exacerbated by the dismal state of the economy, is making it difficult for the government to pick up the tab. Peters warned that the lower income from gas taxes will make it difficult for the federal agency to continue to fund future projects.

"We pay for transit the same way we pay for road and bridge projects — with federal gas taxes," she said. "Relying on the gas tax is like relying on cardboard to keep the rain out — the longer you use it the less it works."

Source

October 25, 2008

Hu Says China's Economy Stable, Pledges Coordination on Crisis

Filed under: business — Tags: , , — Snowman @ 9:07 pm

Chinese President Hu Jintao said maintaining his country's economic growth rate, the fastest among major economies, is the best way to combat a credit crisis that threatens a global recession.

“The fundamentals of the Chinese economy have not changed,'' Hu said at the opening of a biennial summit of Asian and European leaders today in Beijing and after China reported its slowest growth in five years in the third quarter. “We must first and foremost run our own affairs well.''

The two-day Asia-Europe Meeting, known as ASEM, is the first between Asian leaders since bank failures, plunging stock markets and weakening currencies amplified fears that the world is headed for a prolonged economic decline. China was pressed ahead of the meeting to get more involved in combating the crisis by attendees, including European Commission President Jose Barroso.

“It is an obligation for us to work together,'' French President Nicolas Sarkozy said during a speech at the opening ceremony, where he appealed for support for European efforts to ease the crisis. “Europe needs Asia, it needs Asia's growth, Asia's intelligence and its creativity.''

China is seen as key to any global response because it has the world's fastest-growing major economy and $1.9 trillion of currency reserves, an amount larger than Canada's gross domestic product.

Credit Freeze

Credit markets have frozen worldwide amid $660 billion in mortgage-related losses that have forced central banks to pump $2 trillion into bailouts for failing financial institutions. The benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index has plunged 49 percent this year.

China “appreciates'' measures taken by other countries and pledged to coordinate policy to help cope with financial turmoil, Hu said. China also called for increased international cooperation to create a “fair and equitable'' global financial system and urged the International Monetary Fund to increase its surveillance, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance.

A draft agreement from summit leaders on the financial crisis echoed China's wishes, saying the IMF should “play a critical role'' in assisting countries affected by the crisis, according to a copy published by Reuters.

China has also agreed with 10 Southeast Asian nations, along with Japan and South Korea, to finalize a proposed $80 billion fund to shore up Asian exchange rates by the end of the year, Surin Pitsuwan, Secretary General of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television freecreditreport.

China's Response

The ASEM meeting is one of several in the coming weeks that will focus attention on China's response to the crisis.

President George W. Bush has invited leaders from the Group of 20 industrialized and developing nations — including China - -to attend a Nov. 15 summit in Washington, 11 days after the U.S. presidential election.

Finance ministers from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group gather in Trujillo, Peru, starting Nov. 6. APEC's heads of state get together in Lima on Nov. 22. The G- 20's finance ministers and central bank governors convene in Sao Paulo beginning on Nov. 8.

Thailand has proposed that China ease currency-conversion restrictions to facilitate the pooling of reserves and create a $350 billion fund to protect the region's currencies and buy stocks and bonds, said Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister, Olarn Chaipravat, in an interview in Bangkok on Oct. 22.

“The message of this initiative is for China to consider whether or not China would open up its banking system and allow the strongest currency in the world, which is the Chinese yuan, relative to anybody, to be the rightful and anointed convertible currency of the world,'' he said.

Crisis Lessons

Lessons from the Latin American debt crisis and Asian financial crisis are that mechanisms must be put in place rapidly to aid vulnerable markets, and China is one of the few countries with resources to play a leadership role, wrote Citigroup Inc. Senior Vice Chairman William Rhodes in the Financial Times.

China will be forced to take proposals from other Asian countries seriously, said Steve Tsang, a fellow in modern Chinese studies at St. Anthony's College, Oxford, U.K.

“If the region is financially destabilized, it will have more of an impact on China'' than the banking crisis in the U.S. and Europe, where a slowdown in consumer spending may choke off demand for Chinese products, Tsang said.

Source

October 23, 2008

Global Recession Concerns Prompt Governments to Act

Filed under: economics — Tags: , , — Snowman @ 11:46 pm

After easing the financial-market panic by committing trillions of dollars to shore up their banking systems, governments are broadening their focus to buffering its economic aftershocks.

U.S. lawmakers are moving toward the second fiscal stimulus bill this year and Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso is set to cut income taxes. In Europe, Britain's Gordon Brown plans to spend more on schools, Italy's Silvio Berlusconi looks to enact tax breaks for manufacturers and Angela Merkel of Germany mulls tax rebates. French Prime Minister Nicolas Sarkozy today lifted a tax on business investment until the start of 2010

“Having taken action on the banking system, we must take action on the global recession,'' Prime Minister Brown told U.K. lawmakers yesterday. “No country can insulate itself.''

Politicians are acknowledging the worst still lies ahead for their economies and their own electoral fortunes unless they act to cushion growth. World leaders will meet in the U.S. on Nov. 15 to review progress in combating the financial crisis and how to avoid a repeat of it.

The cost of borrowing money among banks has fallen after authorities in the U.S. and Europe acted to take stakes in their biggest banks as global stocks plunged and lending seized up. The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, that banks charge each other for three-month loans fell 2 basis points to 4.92 percent today, the lowest level since June 5, according to the European Banking Federation.

`Meltdown' Averted

“A global meltdown has been averted and governments, while implementing their respective rescue plans, should now turn their attention to the economy and limit the effects of a global recession,'' said Geoffrey Yu, a London-based currency strategist at UBS AG.

Tensions are easing too late to prevent companies and consumers from retrenching. Economists at Deutsche Bank AG expect the Group of Seven economies to contract 1.1 percent next year, the worst since the Great Depression. Even with emerging markets lending support, they predict the weakest global growth since the 1980s.

“As growth slumps, fiscal policy should turn sharply expansionary,'' said Thomas Mayer, Deutsche Bank's co-chief economist in London.

U.S. lawmakers are devising new spending plans after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke endorsed the idea on Oct. 20 and the Bush administration dropped its opposition. The new push will aim to extend jobless benefits, fund infrastructure projects and help cash-strapped regional governments, according to House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt.

Fading Fillip

The effect of measures totaling $168 billion that U.S. lawmakers passed in February has faded after they gave the economy a fillip in the second quarter.

Aso, with an election nearing, will next week unveil the government's second stimulus program since August. The plan will probably include income-tax cuts, deductions for people with home loans and an extension of breaks on capital gains, say economists.

European governments may bend their own rules that cap budget deficits in a bid to save their economies.

Brown's U cash advance in one hour.K. government will next month step up spending on housing, energy and small businesses, while bringing forward construction projects on schools and hospitals, say ministers including U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling.

German Budget Balance

Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi's government is indicating it will enact tax breaks for carmakers and appliance manufacturers. German Chancellor Merkel, who had focused on returning her budget to balance, is considering a 15 billion- euro ($19.3 billion) package of tax rebates. Sarkozy said from today “any new investment made by companies'' in France will be tax-free.

Emerging markets, the growth engines of the global economy, are also looking for remedies to fading expansions.

China's State Council on Oct. 21 cut taxes for exporters and approved construction programs including new expressways and hydro-electric power stations. Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister Olarn Chaipravat and Jun Kwang Woo, chairman of South Korea's Financial Services Committee, said in separate interviews on Oct. 21 that their governments may ease fiscal policy.

Governments may prove more powerful than central bankers in the current environment, said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics Ltd. Lower interest rates are less effective when the financial system is frozen and have a lagging effect at the best of times, he said.

Fewer Obstacles

Governments also have fewer obstacles than usual, Jessop said. Public borrowing is unlikely to “crowd out'' other spending given that consumers and companies are cutting back, while the inflationary byproduct of budget deficits will offset deflationary forces such as cheaper fuel and rising unemployment, he said.

“The greater use of discretionary fiscal policy will be an increasingly important global theme over the coming year,'' said Jessop, a former U.K. Treasury economist.

There are some barriers to how far governments can go, and in the longer term investors may punish those running the largest budget deficits, said Robert Lind, chief economist at ABN Amro NV. He calculates that among rich countries Finland, Sweden, Luxembourg and New Zealand have the greatest capacity to spend, while the U.S., U.K. and Japan have the least.

Biggest Post-War Deficit

The U.K. this week posted its biggest six-month budget deficit since World War II, while the annual deficit in the U.S. could exceed $1 trillion for the first time. In contrast, economies which have enjoyed commodity booms such as Australia or China have budget surpluses and currency reserves to tap.

For now, Lind said governments are rightly invoking the spirit of economist John Maynard Keynes, who died in 1946 after a career advocating activist government as the best solution to slumps such as the Great Depression.

“More government intervention should help to contain the severity of the economic downturn,'' said Lind. “We are all Keynesians now.''

Source

October 22, 2008

Iceland, IMF `Very Close' to Deal; Japan May Help

Filed under: news — Tags: , , — Snowman @ 1:43 am

Iceland's government is “very close'' to a rescue deal with the International Monetary Fund that may also include financial help from Nordic neighbors and Japan, Industry Minister Oessur Skarphedinsson said.

The fund is preparing a plan to present to the government, which is also seeking a loan from Russia, Skarphedinsson said in a telephone interview from Reykjavik yesterday. The Financial Times and New York Times reported that the rescue will amount to $6 billion.

Iceland needs aid from the IMF and Nordic countries after the collapse of its banking system froze its foreign-exchange market, making it hard for importers to finance purchases. Glitnir Bank hf, Landsbanki Islands hf and Kaupthing Bank hf imploded with debts of $61 billion, or as much as 12 times the size of the economy.

“It's clear from our diplomatic contacts that if and when an agreement is made between the IMF and Iceland, then our neighbors would be quite willing to sail in their wake,'' Skarphedinsson said. “We in fact have confirmation of what I would label quite generous lending facilities.''

Norway, Sweden and Denmark would probably follow any accord with the IMF, with Japan also a candidate to provide the Atlantic island with aid, he said.

“We are part of the Nordic family,'' Skarphedinsson said. “It's really stating the obvious to say that definitely the Nordic countries would be among those that would seek to assist us through this crisis, when and if we go to the IMF.''

Nordic Family

The central banks of Denmark, Norway and Sweden in May provided Iceland with a euro swap facility worth a total of 1.5 billion euros ($2 billion). The central bank of Iceland has so far drawn on 400 million euros of that.

Skarphedinsson declined to comment on the Financial Times report that said $1 billion will come from the IMF and the remainder from Nordic governments and Japan. The New York Times said Russia will make a contribution.

The chief press officer at Sweden's central bank, Britta von Schoultz, declined to comment. Norges Bank head of communications said she wasn't “aware of'' any agreement with Iceland linked to a possible IMF deal. Calls made to Danish central bank spokeswoman Louise Buchter weren't immediately returned.

`Good Neighbor'

Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg said his government was in discussions with Iceland.

“We will try to be a good neighbor,'' he told reporters in Berlin yesterday. “But eventually this is up to Iceland because they have to get into an IMF program, and that is an essential part of them re-establishing themselves.''

Japanese Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said at a news conference today that he hadn't heard whether the IMF or Iceland asked his government for aid no fax payday advances. Nakagawa told his Group of Seven counterparts in Washington this month that Japan is ready to contribute to the IMF's emergency lending program.

“Japan wants to show its initiative in the global response to growing financial risks,'' said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.

Iceland's opposition leader Steingrimur Sigfusson criticized the government's handling of the crisis, calling for better economic management.

“We know what to do if we have an earthquake or a natural catastrophe, we put up a control center, much the same as a country does if it has a war on its hands,'' Sigfusson said. “But the government hasn't done this so the management has been too weak.''

3 Cents

Bonds of Iceland's three biggest banks are on sale for as little as 3 cents on the dollar after the government began a restructuring that may leave debt investors with nothing, according to broker KNG Securities LLP.

The three lenders have together amassed debt equivalent to about 12 times the size of the economy, according to Bloomberg data. The government has yet to provide a clear plan on how that debt will be repaid since taking control of the banks. Glitnir and Kaupthing have already missed making bond payments.

The failure of banks on the island, with a population of only 320,000, is affecting investors and depositors across the globe. Kaupthing is poised to become the first European bank to default in Japan's samurai bond market after investors said the Icelandic lender missed a coupon payment. Kaupthing now has a seven-day grace period to honor the obligations.

“The samurai bond default is raising concerns among Japanese banks about whether more will arise and where they might arise,'' said Dai-Ichi Life's Kumano. That said, he added, “I'm not sure how much this funding to Iceland would reduce the chances of more defaults.''

Shrinking Economy

Iceland's economy may contract as much as 10 percent, according to Lars Christensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. The central bank on Oct. 15 cut the benchmark interest rate by an unprecedented 3.5 percentage points to 12 percent, indicating policy makers have given up trying to control inflation. Prices may surge as much as 75 percent in coming months, Christensen estimates.

A nation that was ranked the fifth-richest in the world per capita in the United Nations 2007/2008 Human Development Index is now facing shortages of imports including food and clothing. The central bank on Oct. 10 called on commercial lenders to prioritize foreign-currency transactions to cover payment for essential imports such as food, fuel and medicine.

Source

October 20, 2008

Ballmer’s comment lifts Yahoo’s stock

Filed under: term — Tags: , — Snowman @ 5:40 pm

Yahoo Inc.’s stock price reversed its steep slide Thursday after Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Steve Ballmer raised the possibility of renewing his attempt to buy the downtrodden Internet company.

In a presentation made at a Florida technology conference, Ballmer said a deal between Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) could "still make sense economically."

After that remark was reported, Yahoo shares soared by as much as 17%. The stock closed up $1.24, 10.6%, at $12.99.

Earlier in the session, Yahoo’s stock had sunk to $11.37 - its lowest price in more than five years and a fraction of the $33 per share that Ballmer previously offered for the Sunnyvale-based company before withdrawing the bid in a disagreement over price with Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang.

Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft sought to defuse Ballmer’s comments with a statement that said the software maker "has no interest in acquiring Yahoo no checking account payday advance. There are no discussions between the two companies."

Nevertheless, many investors are still clinging to the hope that Microsoft might make another run at Yahoo as it tries to counter Google Inc.’s (GOOG, Fortune 500) dominance of the Internet search market.

The enthusiastic reaction to Ballmer’s off-the-cuff comment indicates Microsoft has more influence over the direction of Yahoo’s stock price than Yahoo’s own management team.

Yang, Yahoo’s co-founder, so far hasn’t been able to convince Wall Street that he has a plan to snap the company out of a three-year financial funk that could deepen if online advertisers curtail their spending to save money in a weak economy. 

Source

October 14, 2008

Rudd to Spend A$10.4 Bln to Guard Australian Economy

Filed under: online — Tags: , , — Snowman @ 4:57 pm

Australia will give pensioners, home buyers and families A$10.4 billion ($7.3 billion) in a spending package to boost the economy as the global financial crisis freezes credit and slows growth.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will use half the government's estimated budget surplus to encourage consumer spending and bolster the economy, which grew at the slowest pace in more than three years in the second quarter as the housing market slumped, retail sales dropped and stock markets tumbled.

“This strategy will strengthen the national economy and support Australian households, given the risk of a deep and prolonged global economic slowdown,'' Rudd told reporters in Canberra today.

The spending package follows moves this week by Rudd and his Treasurer Wayne Swan to guarantee all deposits and “term wholesale funding'' among the nation's banks. They also doubled the government's investment in residential mortgage securities to A$8 billion in a bid to unlock credit. Australia's central bank pre-empted global interest-rate cuts last week.

“This package could boost economic growth by 0.9 percentage point in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009,'' said Riki Polygenis, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne.

Stocks Surge

The Reserve Bank of Australia in August said the economy would expand 2 percent in 2008, slowing from 4.3 percent in the previous calendar year.

Australian stocks surged for a second day, led by banks, energy and resources companies, on speculation U.S. measures to rescue the financial system will help revive the global economy. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index has gained 10 percent this week, rebounding from its worst week since 1987.

The government will spend A$4.8 billion on cash payments to the elderly, A$3.9 billion on one-off handouts to families and A$1.5 billion on increased grants to first-home buyers, Rudd said. It aims to boost consumption and investment as financial turmoil slows job growth and the A$1 trillion economy.

Rudd will fund the spending from the 2008-09 budget surplus, forecast in May at A$21.7 billion. Today's measures will leave a “comfortable'' surplus, he said.

In December, single pensioners will get a A$1,400 payment and couples a A$2,100 bonus under today's package. That will flow to 4 million pensioners, Rudd said.

Home-Buyer Grants

A first-home-buyer's grant will double to A$14,000 for existing houses and triple to A$21,000 for newly built dwellings, a benefit to go to some 150,000 people.

About two million low-income families will receive a A$1,000 payment for each child under their care. The government also will fund an extra 56,000 training places in the workforce to boost employment.

European nations have committed 1.3 trillion euros ($1 guaranteed approval cash advance loans.8 trillion) to guarantee bank loans and take stakes in lenders amid the global credit crisis. Britain took majority stakes in Bank of Scotland Group Plc and HBOS Plc as a global lending freeze threatens to push the world into recession.

The U.S. will spend $700 billion buying toxic bank debt and possibly recapitalize banks. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke led co-ordinated interest-rate cuts around the world last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia earlier cut its benchmark rate by 1 percentage-point to 6 percent, the biggest reduction since a recession in 1992.

Spending Contracts

The RBA will cut its overnight cash rate target by 50 basis points at its next meeting on Nov. 4, according to a Credit Suisse index based on overnight swaps trading.

Australian home-loan approvals dropped in August to a seven-year low, cited as one of the reasons Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens reduced rates to the lowest in almost two years. The rate cut reduced monthly payments on an average A$250,000 mortgage by almost A$140.

The construction industry contracted at a record pace in September as work was cut on commercial and apartment buildings. Building work has been shrinking for seven months.

Spending by households contracted by 0.1 percent in the second quarter, the first decrease since 1993, slowing gross domestic product to 0.3 percent from the previous three months.

“This is a significant fiscal stimulus,'' opposition Liberal-National coalition leader Malcolm Turnbull told reporters in Canberra after today's package was announced. “It will provide stimulus to the economy, that's for certain.''

Stocks surged across Asia today on more expected action by the U.S. to help credit markets.

`Dramatic Change'

The U.S. government will announce a plan to rescue frozen credit markets that includes spending about half of a total of $250 billion for stakes in nine major banks, people briefed on the matter said.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index of Australian stocks rose 3.7 percent as of 2:38 p.m. in Sydney. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. led financial stocks higher, surging 6.1 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, gained 3.8 percent.

“Things have changed dramatically in the past couple of weeks,'' Treasurer Wayne Swan, who today returned to Canberra from the U.S., told reporters in Canberra.

Slower global growth has slashed prices for commodity exports that have fueled Australia's 17-year economic boom.

The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook last week forecast global economic growth will slow to 3 percent in 2009, a world recession under the fund's informal definition.

Source

October 12, 2008

Reports: Chrysler, GM discuss merger, acquisition

Filed under: business — Tags: , — Snowman @ 9:18 am

DETROIT (AP) — General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC have held preliminary talks about a merger or an acquisition of Chrysler by GM, according to published reports Saturday.

The Wall Street Journal, citing people it described as familiar with the discussions, said Cerberus Capital Management, the private equity firm that owns 80.1 percent of Chrysler and 51 percent of GMAC Financial Services, proposed trading Chrysler’s automotive operations to GM. The Journal said Cerberus would receive GM’s remaining 49 percent stake in GMAC.

The New York Times, also citing people familiar with the talks, said the automakers were discussing a merger. The Times did not mention GMAC, a traditional auto lender hit hard by the housing market downturn.

The talks have stalled because of the recent turmoil in the financial markets, according to the Journal. Its sources said negotiations could resume if markets stabilize because both GM and Cerberus want to quickly divest the assets under discussion.

The negotiations between 100-year-old GM and 83-year-old Chrysler began more than a month ago, according to the Times. Its sources said the chances of a merger were "50-50" as of Friday and likely would take weeks to complete.

Both newspapers posted their stories on their Web sites late Friday.

"Without referencing this specific rumor, as we’ve often said, GM officials routinely discuss issues of mutual interest with other automakers," GM spokesman Tony Cervone said.

Chrysler spokeswoman Shawn Morgan declined comment.

Source

October 10, 2008

AIG hits up Fed for more money

Filed under: economics — Tags: , — Snowman @ 9:09 pm

The New York Federal Reserve is lending up to $37.8 billion to American International Group to give the troubled insurer access to much-needed cash.

In exchange, AIG is giving the New York Fed investment-grade, fixed-income securities that it had previously lent out to other institutions for a fee. Those institutions are now returning these securities and want their money back.

The new program, announced Wednesday, is on top of the $85 billion the federal government agreed to lend to AIG last month to prevent the global company from collapsing. AIG said last Friday it had drawn down $61 billion.

The lending program is a way for AIG to get funding for its businesses, said a New York Fed spokesman. The system is similar to lending facilities the Fed provides to banks, which can also exchange collateral for cash.

The latest announcement does not jeopardize the government’s ability to recoup its loan to AIG, experts said.

"AIG will repay the loan," said Stewart Johnson, portfolio manager at Philo Smith, an investment bank specializing in insurance. "It’s just a matter of how much of themselves they will have to sell."

Paying back a big debt

On Sept. 16, the Federal Reserve Board agreed to lend AIG $85 billion, using the company’s assets as collateral. The loan is expected to be repaid from the proceeds of the asset sales. Interest on the line of credit is steep, and the government took a 79.9% stake in the company.

Last week, AIG said it planned to hold onto its property-and-casualty insurance businesses, while selling off the rest of the company to pay the massive debt quick faxless payday loan.

Those other business lines include its aircraft leasing unit; asset-management division; retirement services; and U.S. life insurance operations.

AIG chief executive Edward Liddy, who was installed by the Federal Reserve last month after the bailout, on a conference call last Friday was optimistic about the potential for the asset sales.

"We fully expect to emerge from this with a capital structure that’s fit to fight," he said. "Our insurance businesses…are strong and well-capitalized."

But some analysts are more skeptical. "The current disruption in the credit markets could make it difficult to sell businesses at attractive valuations," ratings agency Standard and Poor’s said.

CreditSights valued the units AIG planned to sell at $32.9 billion and the divisions it will keep at $86 billion. These figures do not include the sale of a minority stake in its foreign life insurance operations, valued at $133.1 billion.

First to hit the market will likely be units tied to airline leasing and consumer lending, both of which require funding from the debt markets, which is hard to come by these days. International Lease Finance Corp. could command more than $7 billion and American General Finance Corp. will likely bring in about $2 billion, according to CreditSights.

Once AIG sells its assets, it faces many hurdles in stabilizing its property and casualty insurance divisions, experts said.  

Source

October 8, 2008

Dollar sinks as rate-cut expectations grow

Filed under: term — Tags: , , — Snowman @ 10:10 am

The dollar sank against most foreign currencies Tuesday, as the still-frozen credit markets led a majority of investors to believe the Federal Reserve will step in with rate cuts, in addition to buying loans crucial to business.

In a speech before the National Association of Business Economics in Washington on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled that the U.S. central bank may be getting ready to cut interest rates. He said the Fed will consider the appropriateness of its monetary policy given the state of the economy.

The Fed announced earlier Tuesday it would take action to backstop the commercial paper market, by purchasing companies’ short-term debt. That sparked more speculation that the bank needs to cut rates in its meeting Oct. 29 - or even before that in emergency action.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, futures indicated a 48% chance that the Fed will lower its rate to 1.5% from 2%, and the futures showed a 58% chance that the rate will be cut to 1.25%.

The U.S. central bank could choose to lower its key funds rate, which is a rate banks charge other banks to borrow money, in an attempt to further encourage lending and thereby return the normal flow of credit to businesses.

But rate cuts are also inflationary, worrying dollar investors that their investments will devalue over time as the Treasury prints more money.

Euro: Due partly to these concerns, the euro traded at $1.3615 as of 4 p.m. ET. That’s up from $1.3498 on Monday. At one point on Monday, the euro hit $1.3443, the lowest level the currency has seen since Aug. 20, 2007.

But while investors seem to expect the United States to cut rates, they aren’t quite holding their collective breath yet for Europe to do the same.

"The European Central Bank hasn’t sent a clear signal that it will decrease rates anytime soon," said Rivera, currency strategist with Forex Capital Markets. "The much higher expectations that the Fed will cut rates are weighing on the dollar."

British rate cut: Speculation is brewing, however, about a possible rate cut in the U (paydayloans).K. when the Bank of England meets on Thursday, which held the British pound back a bit from achieving the same gains that the euro saw.

At 4 p.m. ET, the British pound bought $1.7483, up from Monday’s $1.7438 level. At one point Monday, the U.K. currency sank as low as $1.7335, the lowest point the pound has seen since March 13, 2006.

Yen: The dollar fell 0.6% against the yen to ¥101.31 after a historic collapse the day before. The dollar fell as low as 4.8%, or ¥100.23 during Monday trading - the biggest one-day drop ever. The dollar recovered a bit from hitting a 6-month low, ending the day at ¥101.82.

The yen was actually down as much as 1% earlier in the day when Australia’s central bank slashed rates early Tuesday and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank would continue to provide liquidity to financial institutions for as long as needed.

The yen typically increases when investors show aversion to risk.

But the Fed’s plans may be a long-term positive for the dollar. With global economies struggling, the United States may in fact have the best chance to recover first.

"It’s a coin flip," said Rivera. "If they have to take measures like this, it may heighten concerns, but the whole concerted effort can be seen as a bottom, and we may start seeing buyers come into the market with confidence that the credit crisis is almost over."

In fact, the euro and pound had been much higher against the dollar before Bernanke’s speech. One analyst says some investors were encouraged that the rate cuts will eventually help the economy.

"There is some reassurance coming back into the marketplace," said Garreth Sylvester, senior currency strategist with HFIX. "Bernanke said he was confident in the measures taken to stifle current climate, and suggested the Treasury’s [financial rescue] plan may be enough." 

Source

October 7, 2008

Japan, Australia Pump $11 Billion Into Markets as Rates Climb

Filed under: finance — Tags: , — Snowman @ 3:16 pm

Japan and Australia's central banks pumped more than $11 billion into money markets, seeking to ease near-record borrowing costs that threaten to tip regional economies into recession.

The Bank of Japan injected 1 trillion yen ($9.8 billion) and the Reserve Bank of Australia added A$1.815 billion ($1.3 billion). The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for three-month dollar loans stayed near a nine-month high and the Tokyo interbank rate was unchanged at the steepest this year. The Japan Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of cash scarcity among foreign banks seeking yen, rose to a record.

Interbank rates have jumped as lenders hoard cash, sheltering from bank failures and plunges in stock and commodities markets. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dipped below 10,000 for the first time since December 2003 as Asian shares slumped for a fourth day, extending an equities rout that erased more than $2 trillion from global equities yesterday.

“There's a massive asset bubble deflating and it just encompasses everything,'' said Adam Carr, senior economist in Sydney at ICAP Australia Ltd., part of the world's largest inter-bank broker. “We've been living in a dreamland and that dream has ended.''

Banks increased deposits held at the Reserve Bank of Australia by A$92 million to A$9.493 billion yesterday, after those holdings reached a record A$11.04 billion on Sept. 30, the RBA said today on its Web site. Those deposits averaged A$1.7 billion last year.

Money held at the BOJ by banks and other financial institutions rose 1.23 trillion yen to 7.22 trillion yen yesterday.

`Hoarding Cash'

The BOJ has pumped about 23 trillion yen into the system over the past three weeks, the most in at least six years, and Australia's central bank is adding twice the daily average injected last year as banks store cash after governments in Europe and the U.S. acted to prevent the collapse of six financial institutions in the past two weeks.

“Despite central banks pumping liquidity into the system, banks are either hoarding cash or putting it into treasury bills,'' said Ong Hock Ann, a money-market dealer at ING Asia Private Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “It's a question of confidence and trust. There is money, but money is not flowing to the right channels.''

The world economy is sliding into its first recession since 2001 as the credit crisis hammers consumers and companies, economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG said yesterday.

Rate Cuts

Economists predict central banks will cut interest rates as growth concerns outweigh inflation worries. Those at UBS predict the Fed will halve its benchmark rate to 1 percent by April and the European Central Bank will cut its main rate to 3 percent from 4.25 percent by the end of next year.

Australia's central bank today slashed its cash target rate to 6 percent from 7 percent, the biggest reduction since 1992 and double the half-point cut forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey (500 fast cash).

Australian banks' borrowing costs were little changed after today's cash injection, according to a gauge that measures the availability of funds in the market. The difference between the rate banks charge each other for three-month loans and the overnight indexed swap rate stood at 86 basis points, or 0.86 percentage point, from 88.3 before the RBA operation. The gap has averaged 45 points this year.

Banks hold cash in RBA exchange settlement accounts, on- call deposits at the central bank that receive interest at 0.25 percentage point below the central bank's benchmark rate.

Default Risk

The cost of protecting investors from Australian corporate bond defaults increased to a record.

The Markit iTraxx Australia index rose 34 basis points to 245, according to prices from Citigroup Inc. The price of the contracts, tied to the debt of 25 companies including Qantas Airways Ltd. and BHP Billiton Ltd., is the highest since the iTraxx benchmarks started in 2004. Sydney trading desks were closed yesterday for a holiday.

The Markit iTraxx Japan index rose 9 basis points to 207, Morgan Stanley prices show.

“Credit markets remain extremely weak and fragile,'' Gus Medeiros, a credit analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in Sydney, wrote in a research note today. “We expect the market to remain very volatile and thin in the next few days.''

Damage from the credit crunch accelerated over the past month as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Washington Mutual Inc. collapsed, the U.S. government took control of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co. and Wachovia Corp. were purchased by rivals.

Cash Auctions

The U.S. dollar Libor-OIS spread, the difference between the three-month dollar rate and the overnight indexed swap rate, stood at 287 basis points today, after touching 298 points yesterday. It was at 129 basis points two weeks ago and 81 basis points a month ago. The Japanese Libor-OIS spread widened to a record 61.05 basis points.

Japan's central bank today said it offered $20 billion in three-month loans to 40 financial institutions as part of a currency swap agreement with the Federal Reserve. The operation was held for firms including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Goldman Sachs Japan Co.

The Federal Reserve will double its auctions of cash to banks to as much as $900 billion and is considering further steps, the central bank said today in a statement. The Fed will increase its auctions under the 28-day and 84-day Term Auction Facility operations to $150 billion each. The two forward TAF auctions in November will be increased to $150 billion each. The central bank will also begin paying interest on bank reserves.

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