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February 14, 2012

US stocks down as Greek bailout debate winds on

Filed under: business, online — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 2:28 pm

It wasn’t the Valentine’s Day investors were hoping for.

Stocks opened lower on Wall Street Tuesday, weighed down by disappointing news about January retail sales in the U.S. and continuing economic struggles in Europe.

The Dow Jones industrial average slid 22 points to 12,852 in early trading. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 3 points to 1,349. The Nasdaq fell 8 points to 2,923.

The government reported that U.S. retail sales rose 0.4 percent last month, missing the 0.7 percent growth analysts had predicted.

Late Monday Moody’s downgraded its debt ratings on six European countries, including Italy, Portugal and Spain. Moody’s also said it might cut France, Austria and the U.K. as well. Greek leaders said the country’s economy shrank 7 percent in the fourth quarter.

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February 11, 2012

U.S. jobless rate projected to fall sharply

Filed under: economics, mortgage — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 4:48 am

Economists in a survey see the unemployment rate falling much faster this year than previously expected, an improvement in the jobs market that could help President Obama’s re-election chances.

A survey of 45 forecasters released on Friday by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve projected the unemployment rate averaging 8.1 percent during the year’s fourth quarter. Voting for president will be November 6.

In the Philadelphia Fed’s previous poll released in November 2011, forecasters saw unemployment averaging 8.7 percent in the last three months of this year.

The forecasters slightly lowered their outlook for economic growth.

The new survey showed gross domestic product was expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent in 2012, down from a 2.4 percent estimate in the fourth-quarter survey. Economists have cautioned that a big push by companies to restock their shelves at the end of 2011 would not carry over into this year, dulling the growth outlook.

Views about the labor market, however, appeared to reflect a sharp drop in the unemployment rate in recent months.

The jobless rate was 8.3 percent in January, down from 8.7 percent in November.

But even with the improved outlook, the job market would still be limping badly the rest of the year, underscoring the challenges to Obama’s re-election bid.

The unemployment rate was 5.0 percent when the United States slipped into recession in December 2007.

The Philadelphia Fed’s survey also showed monthly gains in non-farm payroll growth are expected to average 144,000 this year. That is an improvement from the previous survey but is not far from the numbers of new workers added every month due to population growth.

Forecasts for GDP growth in 2013 were unchanged in the first-quarter poll at 2.7 percent.

For the current quarter, economists lowered their growth outlook to 2.2 percent from 2.4 percent.

Economists also raised their expectations for inflation this year, seeing the Consumer Price Index up 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. Previously, they expected that reading would be 2.0 percent.

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February 9, 2012

Jobless claims drop brightens labor market picture

Filed under: management, news — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 3:04 pm

The number of Americans signing up for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, the latest sign of recovery in the labor market.

Initial claims for state jobless benefits dropped 15,000 to 358,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. A four-week average of new filings, which provides a better view of the trend, hit its lowest level since April 2008.

The decline in first-time claims, which defied economists’ forecasts for a rise to 370,000, pointed to building strength in the labor market and raised the odds of another solid increase in employment this month.

“We are getting better employment growth and are seeing some signs that we are getting some self-sustaining aspects of economic activity,” said Michael Strauss, chief economist at Commonfund in Wilton, Connecticut.

U.S. employers added 243,000 workers to their payrolls in January and the unemployment rate dropped to a three-year low of 8.3 percent, leading many Wall Street economists to push forecasts for economic growth higher.

Last week’s decline in new applications for jobless aid brought them closer to the 350,000 mark that economists say would signal sustained labor market strength. Initial claims spent a lot of time below that level from 2004-2008 before they shot sharply higher as the economy’s troubles deepened.

U.S. stocks were trading marginally higher in early afternoon on optimism spurred by the data and by news that Greek leaders had reached a deal on reforms needed for a new bailout.

Prices for longer-dated U.S. Treasury debt tumbled, while the dollar fell marginally against a basket of currencies.

FED WATCHING

The economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the final three months of last year, according to a preliminary estimate last month free credit score online. That marked a sharp step up from the third quarter’s 1.8 percent pace, and economists believe much of that momentum will be maintained.

Other data on Thursday showed a jump in wholesale inventories in December, suggesting the government’s fourth-quarter growth estimate could be revised higher.

But much will depend on the December trade data on Friday and a broader report on overall business inventories next week.

The recent string of upbeat data has raised doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will launch a third round of bond buying to spur the recovery.

“It does reduce the risk of additional monetary accommodation but I don’t think it changes in anyway the dial at the Fed for keeping rates accommodative at least at these levels for the foreseeable future,” said Millan Mulraine, senior macro strategist at TD Securities in New York.

Fed officials have said they expect to keep U.S. interest rates extraordinarily low at least through late 2014.

“As much as they have been encouraged by the past two months, that is just a modest down payment on what needs to be done to make improvements in labor market conditions,” Mulraine added.

Despite the brighter economic signs, about 23.8 million Americans are either out of work or underemployed and there are no job openings for nearly three out of every four unemployed people.

The number of people still receiving jobless benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid rose in the week ended January 28. A total of 7.66 million people were claiming unemployment benefits in the week ended January 21.

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February 6, 2012

Warrenton outlets emptying out, headed to auction block

Filed under: marketing, news — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 10:24 am

WARRENTON • A billboard along Interstate 70 encourages drivers to stop in Warrenton and stay awhile.

But with just a handful of shops left at the Warrenton Outlet Center, there are fewer reasons for St. Louisans to make the trek to this city, which is about 60 miles west of downtown.

The Gap Factory Outlet and Dress Barn have jumped ship, finding apparently sunnier pastures last year in a strip center in Wentzville. The Levi’s Outlet Store, G.H. Bass & Company, and the Famous Footwear Outlet shuttered their locations last month.

And the Nike Factory Store, one of the last major retailers left, is closing in April and moving to the Meadows at Lake Saint Louis.

Elsewhere around the country, many outlet malls continue to thrive and developers are rushing to build more of them. But Warrenton’s outlet center, operating under an increasingly outdated model, never managed to reach its full potential.

Now the beleaguered center will suffer an ignoble fate shared by other retail properties on the decline:  the auction block.

The 200,000 square foot outlet center will be put up for sale in a three-day online auction starting Monday morning. The minimum starting bid is $375,000.

The listing at auction.com notes that the center was 35 percent occupied in November. But that was before some of the more recent departures.

The center first opened in 1993 during a boom in outlet mall building around the country. It once boasted many notable stores such as Mikasa, Nine West, and Jones New York — some names of which are still barely visible above vacant storefronts. At one time, it had upwards of 45 stores. Now only about 10 stores remain.

“Even a few years ago, it was still a vibrant center,” said Michelle Schlenther, Warrenton’s director of economic development. “People would come out and make a day trip out of it. The dad would go play a round of golf while the wife shopped.”

So what happened?

“It’s an older center,” said Linda Humphers, who tracks the outlet mall industry for the International Council of Shopping Centers as editor of Value Retail News. “It’s only 200,000 square feet and it’s probably a little too far out of town.”

Older outlet malls like Warrenton were built about 40 to 50 miles outside of cities because retailers objected to having discounted merchandise so close to their regular-price stores.

But that model has begun to change of late with newer outlet malls creeping closer and closer in. A good illustration of this is that there are two proposed outlet mall developments duking it out to come to Chesterfield within a stone’s throw from the Chesterfield Mall.

NOT A DESTINATION

Steve Etcher, executive director of the Boonslick Regional Planning Commission, said the Warrenton outlets never grew to be large enough to be a true shopping destination. A third phase for the center, which would have taken it more than 100 stores, never materialized.

“You had drive-by shopping, but not enough to sustain it,” he said. “It’s not a bad location — you’re right on 70, but it’s not necessarily destination. To me, Lake of the Ozarks is destination. But this ended up being more of an along-the-way thing.”

It didn’t help, he said, that ownership of the center changed hands several times. And then when the St. Louis Mills opened in 2003, offering a mix of outlet and regular price stores, that took some wind out of Warrenton, too.

Schlenther also traced some of the decline to several years ago went a number of stores went bankrupt or underwent massive restructuring such as KB Toys, Liz Claiborne, and Big Dog Sportswear.

“So a lot of what closed there closed not only in Missouri, but across the nation,” she said. “And it just happened that we had a lot of those in one facility.”

Things got only worse when the property fell into receivership a couple years ago, Schlenther said. At that time, the owner was Ariel Preferred Retail Group, which had a portfolio of about seven outlet malls.

“Stores just don’t want to come in and put an investment in because they don’t know when it’s bought what the new owners are going to do,” she said.

Texas-based Woodmont Co. is the receiver that’s managing the property. An on-site outlet manager referred questions to Fred Meno, a Woodmont executive. Meno did not return requests for comment.

Despite the troubles at Warrenton, Humphers said the prospects for an outlet mall in Chesterfield is a rosier proposition because the developers behind both projects are large, reputable mall developers.

In November, Simon Property Group, the owner of the St. Louis Mills, announced it was joining forces with Woodmont and EWB Development on that proposed outlet project to be called St Louis Premium Outlets. The project previously went by the name Spirit of St. Louis Outlets.

The other proposed outlet center — Chesterfield Outlets — is being spearheaded by Taubman Centers. The city of Chesterfield has approved its zoning request. And its plans for a 472,000-square foot upscale outlet center will go before the city’s architectural review board next week.

Aimee Nassif, the city’s planning and development director, said she’s expecting to receive the section plans from the other project any day now.

“They are literally kind of racing to the finish line,” she said. “It will be very interesting.”

OTHER USES

But Donna Boehringer hasn’t given up on the Warrenton outlets yet. She has operated her Corner Quilt Fabrics store in the center for about seven years after moving there from another location in town.

The move was good for business. A billboard she has along the interstate has also helped. She estimated about 60 percent of her customers are from out of town.

“Quilters seem to have this sixth sense of quilt shops,” she said. “If there’s one around, they will stop by.”

Boehringer did have her worst year in sales last year, but she attributed that more to the economy than to less traffic at the center. Now she’s in the process of renegotiating her lease.

“My plans are to stay right here,” he said. “I’m trying to be optimistic because I’d like to see something else come in. But we’ll see.”

Jan Olearnick, executive director of the Warrenton Area Chamber of Commerce, thinks the property holds promise for some sort of mixed-use project. An education center, a health facility, and a technology incubator are some of the ideas that have been thrown around.

“It would take a forward-thinking person to try and revive it, but we’re ready,” she said. “Warrenton is definitely a good location for any industry because of our proximity to I-70 and to the railroad — and even to the river.”

On top of that, the city recently got federal approval to build a new interchange just west of the outlet center, making for easier access to the site. But the project’s funding source has not yet been determined.

In the meantime, other enterprises have been popping up in the region — though they are not necessarily retail.

A billboard next to the entrance to the outlet center advertises one of them a bit further west: zip line tours.

Source

January 29, 2012

Harvard

Filed under: finance, term — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 9:00 am

U.S. economic growth may not top 2 percent this year and a third round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve would have little effect, said Martin Feldstein, a professor of economics at Harvard University.

January 24, 2012

Scots Independence Cost May Beat Oil Cash Nationalists Seek - Bloomberg

Filed under: loans, online — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 8:28 am

Ever since oil was discovered in the North Sea off the British coast in December 1969, the Scottish National Party claimed it for Scotland.

Now in power and closer than ever to a referendum on whether to break from the U.K. after more than 300 years, the SNP government in Edinburgh led by Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond is counting on tax revenue from the oil industry as a key pillar of the economy along with financial services.

January 21, 2012

US urges Romanians to protest peacefully

Filed under: finance, legal — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 3:48 am

A U.S. official has urged Romanians to avoid the violence that has tarred a week of anti-government protests that have swept the country, injuring more than 60.

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said in comments broadcast Friday by Romanian media that Washington supported people’s right to protest and express their views “peacefully.”

“But we call on both protesters and authorities to refrain from any violence,” she added.

A majority of the protests have been peaceful, but riot police official Aurel Moise said 100 protesters had been questioned Thursday on suspicion of throwing stones and using iron fences to break through police lines.

Police used tear gas after protesters started a fire and set up a barricade. Five people were injured.

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January 19, 2012

U.S. Housing Starts Drop 4.1% - Bloomberg

Filed under: economics, online ads — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 12:48 pm

Builders began work on fewer houses than forecast in December, capping the worst year on record for single-family home construction and signaling recovery in the industry will take time.

Housing starts dropped 4.1 percent to a 657,000 annual rate last month, reflecting a slump in multifamily dwellings, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, were little changed.

Four years after housing helped spark the last recession, falling home prices and ongoing foreclosures are hampering an industry-wide recovery. For all of 2011, work was started on 428,600 single-family homes as construction competed with the surfeit of previously owned dwellings.

January 6, 2012

Employment growth picks up pace

Filed under: online ads, term — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 8:23 pm

Employment grew solidly last month and the jobless rate dropped to a near three-year low of 8.5 percent, offering the strongest evidence yet of an acceleration in economic activity.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 200,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, the most in three months and way above economists’ expectations for a 150,000 gain.

The economy needs to sustain the current pace of job creation to signal a robust recovery is finally under way.

The unemployment rate dropped from a revised 8.7 percent in November, which was previously reported as 8.6 percent. The jobless rate is now the lowest since February 2009.

“This highlights that the U.S. economy is on its way to recovery even as strains in Europe persist,” said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital in Toronto.

Stocks index futures extended gains on the data, while prices for Treasury debt fell. The dollar rose against the euro.

Signs the labor market is gaining traction could offer some comfort for the Obama administration, whose economic policies are constantly attacked by the Republicans.

The state of the labor market could determine whether President Barack Obama gets re-elected in November.

The report cemented views that growth in the fourth quarter accelerated after a tepid performance in the first 9 months of the year.

A string of better-than-expected U.S. economic indicators in recent weeks has highlighted a contrast between the recovery in the world’s biggest economy and Europe, which is already widely believed to be in recession and probably faces worse to come.

Though the payrolls count for October and November was revised to show 8,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported, there is no denying the labor market is recovering.

The separate household survey, from which the jobless rate is derived, showed gains in employment and a modest decline in the labor force, helping to lower the jobless rate.

A broad measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have stopped looking and those working only part time but who want more work, dropped to an almost three-year low of 15.2 percent from 15.6 percent in November.

Still, the economy needs even faster pace of job growth over a sustained period to make a noticeable dent in the pool of the 23.7 million Americans who remain either out of work or underemployed since the end of the 2007-09 recession business card design.

With the labor market still far from healthy, the debt crisis in Europe unresolved and tensions over Iran threatening to drive up oil prices, the U.S. economy faces stiff headwinds.

Economists predict the recovery will lose a step early this year after expanding in the fourth quarter at what is expected to be the fastest pace in 1-1/2 years.

This should keep alive the possibility of the Federal Reserve embarking on a third round of asset purchases, or quantitative easing, to spur stronger growth.

GOVERNMENT A DRAG

All the job gains in December came from the private sector, where payrolls rose 212,000 - the most in three months. Government employment contracted 12,000.

For all of 2011, the private sector added 1.9 million jobs, while government employment fell 280,000.

A measure of the share of industries that showed job gains during the month rebounded after falling sharply in November.

There were job gains in construction, where unseasonably mild weather has boosted groundbreaking for new homes. Construction payrolls increased 17,000 after falling 12,000 in November.

Transportation and warehousing also got a boost from the mild temperatures, with employment jumping 50,200.

The bulk of the transportation increase came from the courier and messenger industry, which rose 42,000, probably reflecting gains from online purchases during the holiday season.

Manufacturing jobs rose 23,000, the largest gain since July. Factory employment rose 225,000 last year.

Retail employment rose 27,900 after hefty gains in November as retailers geared for a busy holiday shopping season.

Healthcare and social assistance increased 28,7000 after rising 20,200 in November. But temporary hiring - seen as a harbinger of future hiring - fell 7,500 in December after gaining 11,200.

Even though employment picked up last month, hourly earnings rose a modest four cents, indicating that most of the jobs being created are low paying. The high unemployment rate also means wages cannot grow much.

This is a potentially troubling sign for consumer spending, which has been largely supported by a reduction in savings.

The average workweek rose to 34.4 hours from 34.3 hours in November.

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January 2, 2012

China to Balance

Filed under: mortgage, online — Tags: , , , — Snowman @ 12:03 am

China will balance

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